Prediction Analysis: Jong Ajax vs Emmen
Jong Ajax vs Emmen prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Eerste Divisie
2026-08-17
18:00
Jong Ajax
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
64%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Emmen
Away
Prediction Summary
1
48%
X
23%
2
30%
Over 2.5
63%
BTTS Yes
64%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Jong Ajax (Home)
Goals scored / match1.47
Goals conceded / match1.68
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate63%
Emmen (Away)
Goals scored / match1.16
Goals conceded / match2.21
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate58%
Team Form last 5 matches
Jong Ajax
LWLLL
Emmen
WDLWD
Goals Comparison rate per team
68%
+0.5
63%
47%
+1.5
37%
16%
+2.5
16%
11%
+3.5
0%
5%
+4.5
0%
63%
BTTS
58%
Model Insight
The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 64%. Model confidence is Medium.
Jong Ajax averages 1.47 goals scored at home, while Emmen averages 1.16 goals scored away.
Model Strength
64%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
48%
Draw
23%
Away Win
30%
Over 2.5
63%
BTTS Yes
64%
Head-to-Head last 5
Feb 2026
Jong Ajax(A)
0 - 0
Emmen
Draw
Oct 2025
Jong Ajax
0 - 1
Emmen
Away
Mar 2025
Jong Ajax
0 - 2
Emmen
Away
Nov 2024
Jong Ajax(A)
2 - 4
Emmen
Away
Mar 2024
Jong Ajax(A)
2 - 4
Emmen
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Jong Ajax won 0, drew 1 and lost 4.
Current Streaks
Jong Ajax — unbeaten run (home)0
Jong Ajax — scoring streak (home)0
Emmen — winless run (away)4
Emmen — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Jong Ajax Win (1)48%
Draw (X)23%
Emmen Win (2)30%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
68%
+0.5
63%
47%
+1.5
37%
16%
+2.5
16%
11%
+3.5
0%
5%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
32%
-0.5
37%
53%
-1.5
63%
84%
-2.5
84%
89%
-3.5
100%
95%
-4.5
100%
Jong Ajax vs Emmen — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Jong Ajax — scored (home)1.47
Jong Ajax — conceded (home)1.68
Emmen — scored (away)1.16
Emmen — conceded (away)2.21
Model expected combined goals3.26
Both Teams To Score
Yes64%
No36%
Rate per Team
Jong Ajax — BTTS matches (home)63%
Emmen — BTTS matches (away)58%
Combined (simple average)60.5%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.567%
Under 8.533%
Over 9.557%
Under 9.543%
Over 10.546%
Under 10.554%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.50
Per-Team Corners own matches
Jong Ajax (home)
Corners for5.1
Corners against5.7
Emmen (away)
Corners for5.0
Corners against4.9
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Jong Ajax
13
7
16
8
8
Emmen
11
12
11
8
13
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.571%
Under 2.529%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.7
Yellow Cards per Team
Jong Ajax (home)
For2.1
Emmen (away)
For2.3
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.580%
Under 19.520%
Over 22.567%
Under 22.533%
Over 25.553%
Under 25.547%
Expected total shots26.98
Jong Ajax
Shots Over 9.579%
Shots Over 11.565%
Shots Over 13.549%
Expected shots13.86
On Target Over 3.573%
On Target Over 4.557%
On Target Over 5.542%
Expected on target5.23
Emmen
Shots Over 9.575%
Shots Over 11.559%
Shots Over 13.543%
Expected shots13.11
On Target Over 3.565%
On Target Over 4.548%
On Target Over 5.533%
Expected on target4.66
Shots per Game
Jong Ajax — total shots (home)12.6
Emmen — total shots (away)12.6
Shots on Target
Jong Ajax — on target (home)4.7
Emmen — on target (away)4.2
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Jong Ajax
Inside the box7.18
Outside the box4.68
Emmen
Inside the box8.63
Outside the box4.89
Player Shots Jong Ajax
Rayane Bounida
Shots on Target/Game2.2
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target30%
A. Kaplan
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target33%
Sean Steur
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target9%
Kayden Wolff
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target20%
S. Vink
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target13%
Player Shots Emmen
V. Besuijen
Shots on Target/Game2.5
+0.5 On Target13%
+1.5 On Target13%
F. Evina
Shots on Target/Game2.3
+0.5 On Target16%
+1.5 On Target16%
R. Postema
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target74%
+1.5 On Target40%
F. Gerezgiher
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target24%
+1.5 On Target16%
N. Amadin
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target33%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Jong Ajax xG (home)1.13
Emmen xG (away)1.51
Average Possession
51.71%
Possession
51.87%
Team Comparison Jong Ajax vs Emmen
82.39%
Pass accuracy
80%
440.76
Passes per match
404.13
0
Goals prevented
0
11.39
Fouls committed
13.92
4.42
Goalkeeper saves
3.95
1.49
Offsides
1.92
16.18
Tackles per match
16.82
League average xG this season is 1.67 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Jong Ajax vs Emmen prediction analysis
Review Jong Ajax vs Emmen with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Eerste Divisie.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Eerste Divisie
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights