Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Junior vs Alianza Valledupar

Junior vs Alianza Valledupar prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primera A 2025-04-19 23:10
Junior
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
34%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Alianza Valledupar
Away

Prediction Summary

1
52%
X
28%
2
20%
Under 2.5
66%
BTTS No
62%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Junior (Home)

Goals scored / match1.63
Goals conceded / match0.78
Over 2.5 rate15%
BTTS rate52%

Alianza Valledupar (Away)

Goals scored / match0.9
Goals conceded / match1.45
Over 2.5 rate10%
BTTS rate40%

Team Form last 5 matches

Junior
WWLWW
Alianza Valledupar
LWWWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

81% +0.5 55%
59% +1.5 25%
15% +2.5 10%
7% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
52% BTTS 40%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 34%. Model confidence is Medium.

Junior averages 1.63 goals scored at home, while Alianza Valledupar averages 0.9 goals scored away.

Model Strength
66%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
52%
Draw
28%
Away Win
20%
Over 2.5
34%
BTTS Yes
38%

Head-to-Head last 2

Oct 2025 Junior(A) 1 - 0 Alianza Valledupar Home
Apr 2025 Junior 2 - 0 Alianza Valledupar Home

In the last 2 meetings, Junior won 2, drew 0 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Junior — unbeaten run (home)5
Junior — scoring streak (home)7
Alianza Valledupar — winless run (away)1
Alianza Valledupar — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Junior Win (1)52%
Draw (X)28%
Alianza Valledupar Win (2)20%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

81% +0.5 55%
59% +1.5 25%
15% +2.5 10%
7% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

19% -0.5 45%
41% -1.5 75%
85% -2.5 90%
93% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Junior vs Alianza Valledupar — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Junior — scored (home)1.63
Junior — conceded (home)0.78
Alianza Valledupar — scored (away)0.9
Alianza Valledupar — conceded (away)1.45
Model expected combined goals2.07

Both Teams To Score

Yes38%
No62%

Rate per Team

Junior — BTTS matches (home)52%
Alianza Valledupar — BTTS matches (away)40%
Combined (simple average)46%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.589%
Under 4.511%
Over 5.585%
Under 5.515%
Over 6.574%
Under 6.526%
Over 7.561%
Under 7.539%
Over 8.552%
Under 8.548%
Over 9.541%
Under 9.559%
Over 10.528%
Under 10.572%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

Junior (home)

Corners for5.1
Corners against4.1

Alianza Valledupar (away)

Corners for3.3
Corners against5.5

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Junior
9 6 7 9 12
Alianza Valledupar
16 11 9 10 6

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.597%
Under 1.53%
Over 2.582%
Under 2.518%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.9

Yellow Cards per Team

Junior (home)

For2.4

Alianza Valledupar (away)

For2.4

Shots per Game

Junior — total shots (home)13.4
Alianza Valledupar — total shots (away)9.9

Shots on Target

Junior — on target (home)4.6
Alianza Valledupar — on target (away)3.3

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Junior

Inside the box7.07
Outside the box4.57

Alianza Valledupar

Inside the box6.4
Outside the box5.8

Player Shots Junior

B. Castrillón
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target51%
+1.5 On Target15%
G. Paiva
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target49%
+1.5 On Target15%
Titi
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target6%
J. Barrera
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target7%
J. Enamorado
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target6%

Player Shots Alianza Valledupar

C. Lucumi
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target53%
F. Pardo
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target15%
E. Torres
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target3%
J. Muñoz
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target6%
M. Martinez
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target9%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Junior xG (home)1.39
Alianza Valledupar xG (away)1.2

Average Possession

52.17% Possession 49.88%

Team Comparison Junior vs Alianza Valledupar

78.93% Pass accuracy 78.53%
379.17 Passes per match 349.75
0 Goals prevented 0
10.2 Fouls committed 12
3.54 Goalkeeper saves 2.55
1.55 Offsides 1.97
12.63 Tackles per match 12.03

League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Junior vs Alianza Valledupar prediction analysis

Review Junior vs Alianza Valledupar with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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