Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Junior vs Atletico Nacional

Junior vs Atletico Nacional prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primera A 2025-11-30 23:30
Junior
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
43%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Atletico Nacional
Away

Prediction Summary

1
42%
X
27%
2
30%
Under 2.5
57%
BTTS No
51%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Junior (Home)

Goals scored / match1.63
Goals conceded / match0.78
Over 2.5 rate15%
BTTS rate52%

Atletico Nacional (Away)

Goals scored / match1.38
Goals conceded / match1.23
Over 2.5 rate15%
BTTS rate65%

Team Form last 5 matches

Junior
WWLWW
Atletico Nacional
LWLDD

Goals Comparison rate per team

81% +0.5 73%
59% +1.5 42%
15% +2.5 15%
7% +3.5 4%
0% +4.5 4%
52% BTTS 65%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 43%. Model confidence is Medium.

Junior averages 1.63 goals scored at home, while Atletico Nacional averages 1.38 goals scored away.

Model Strength
57%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
42%
Draw
27%
Away Win
30%
Over 2.5
43%
BTTS Yes
49%

Head-to-Head last 4

Nov 2025 Junior 2 - 1 Atletico Nacional Home
Nov 2025 Junior(A) 1 - 1 Atletico Nacional Draw
Nov 2025 Junior 2 - 1 Atletico Nacional Home
May 2025 Junior(A) 3 - 2 Atletico Nacional Home

In the last 4 meetings, Junior won 3, drew 1 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Junior — unbeaten run (home)5
Junior — scoring streak (home)7
Atletico Nacional — winless run (away)4
Atletico Nacional — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Junior Win (1)42%
Draw (X)27%
Atletico Nacional Win (2)30%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

81% +0.5 73%
59% +1.5 42%
15% +2.5 15%
7% +3.5 4%
0% +4.5 4%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

19% -0.5 27%
41% -1.5 58%
85% -2.5 85%
93% -3.5 96%
100% -4.5 96%

Junior vs Atletico Nacional — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Junior — scored (home)1.63
Junior — conceded (home)0.78
Atletico Nacional — scored (away)1.38
Atletico Nacional — conceded (away)1.23
Model expected combined goals2.42

Both Teams To Score

Yes49%
No51%

Rate per Team

Junior — BTTS matches (home)52%
Atletico Nacional — BTTS matches (away)65%
Combined (simple average)58.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.595%
Under 4.55%
Over 5.591%
Under 5.59%
Over 6.578%
Under 6.522%
Over 7.570%
Under 7.530%
Over 8.562%
Under 8.538%
Over 9.538%
Under 9.562%
Over 10.529%
Under 10.571%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.30

Per-Team Corners own matches

Junior (home)

Corners for5.1
Corners against4.1

Atletico Nacional (away)

Corners for5.3
Corners against4.0

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Junior
9 6 7 9 12
Atletico Nacional
12 8 9 3 9

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.595%
Under 1.55%
Over 2.587%
Under 2.513%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.6

Yellow Cards per Team

Junior (home)

For2.4

Atletico Nacional (away)

For2.8

Shots per Game

Junior — total shots (home)13.4
Atletico Nacional — total shots (away)13.8

Shots on Target

Junior — on target (home)4.6
Atletico Nacional — on target (away)4.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Junior

Inside the box7.07
Outside the box4.57

Atletico Nacional

Inside the box8.73
Outside the box7.02

Player Shots Junior

B. Castrillón
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target51%
+1.5 On Target15%
G. Paiva
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target49%
+1.5 On Target15%
Titi
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target6%
J. Barrera
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target7%
J. Enamorado
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target6%

Player Shots Atletico Nacional

A. Morelos
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target68%
+1.5 On Target27%
K. Viveros
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target10%
E. Cardona
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target51%
+1.5 On Target15%
J. Rengifo
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target15%
A. Sarmiento
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target13%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Junior xG (home)1.39
Atletico Nacional xG (away)1.17

Average Possession

52.17% Possession 56.51%

Team Comparison Junior vs Atletico Nacional

78.93% Pass accuracy 83.69%
379.17 Passes per match 411.63
0 Goals prevented 0
10.2 Fouls committed 11.51
3.54 Goalkeeper saves 2.59
1.55 Offsides 1.7
12.63 Tackles per match 10.58

League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Junior vs Atletico Nacional prediction analysis

Review Junior vs Atletico Nacional with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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