Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Junior vs Fortaleza FC

Junior vs Fortaleza FC prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primera A 2025-05-16 23:10
Junior
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
31%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Fortaleza FC
Away

Prediction Summary

1
58%
X
28%
2
15%
Under 2.5
69%
BTTS No
68%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Junior (Home)

Goals scored / match1.63
Goals conceded / match0.78
Over 2.5 rate15%
BTTS rate52%

Fortaleza FC (Away)

Goals scored / match0.78
Goals conceded / match1.48
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate43%

Team Form last 5 matches

Junior
WWLWW
Fortaleza FC
LLLWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

81% +0.5 57%
59% +1.5 22%
15% +2.5 0%
7% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
52% BTTS 43%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 31%. Model confidence is Medium.

Junior averages 1.63 goals scored at home, while Fortaleza FC averages 0.78 goals scored away.

Model Strength
69%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
58%
Draw
28%
Away Win
15%
Over 2.5
31%
BTTS Yes
32%

Head-to-Head last 2

Nov 2025 Junior(A) 1 - 1 Fortaleza FC Draw
May 2025 Junior 2 - 1 Fortaleza FC Home

In the last 2 meetings, Junior won 1, drew 1 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Junior — unbeaten run (home)5
Junior — scoring streak (home)7
Fortaleza FC — winless run (away)1
Fortaleza FC — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Junior Win (1)58%
Draw (X)28%
Fortaleza FC Win (2)15%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

81% +0.5 57%
59% +1.5 22%
15% +2.5 0%
7% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

19% -0.5 43%
41% -1.5 78%
85% -2.5 100%
93% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Junior vs Fortaleza FC — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Junior — scored (home)1.63
Junior — conceded (home)0.78
Fortaleza FC — scored (away)0.78
Fortaleza FC — conceded (away)1.48
Model expected combined goals1.94

Both Teams To Score

Yes32%
No68%

Rate per Team

Junior — BTTS matches (home)52%
Fortaleza FC — BTTS matches (away)43%
Combined (simple average)47.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.590%
Under 4.510%
Over 5.582%
Under 5.518%
Over 6.570%
Under 6.530%
Over 7.562%
Under 7.538%
Over 8.547%
Under 8.553%
Over 9.536%
Under 9.564%
Over 10.526%
Under 10.574%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.90

Per-Team Corners own matches

Junior (home)

Corners for5.1
Corners against4.1

Fortaleza FC (away)

Corners for3.8
Corners against4.6

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Junior
9 6 7 9 12
Fortaleza FC
6 11 11 12 8

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.595%
Under 1.55%
Over 2.581%
Under 2.519%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.8

Yellow Cards per Team

Junior (home)

For2.4

Fortaleza FC (away)

For2.0

Shots per Game

Junior — total shots (home)13.4
Fortaleza FC — total shots (away)12.2

Shots on Target

Junior — on target (home)4.6
Fortaleza FC — on target (away)3.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Junior

Inside the box7.07
Outside the box4.57

Fortaleza FC

Inside the box5.83
Outside the box6.5

Player Shots Junior

B. Castrillón
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target51%
+1.5 On Target15%
G. Paiva
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target49%
+1.5 On Target15%
Titi
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target6%
J. Barrera
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target7%
J. Enamorado
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target6%

Player Shots Fortaleza FC

K. Salazar
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target33%
Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target18%
S. Valencia
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target9%
C. Lucumi
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target17%
L. Sanchez
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target17%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Junior xG (home)1.39
Fortaleza FC xG (away)1.3

Average Possession

52.17% Possession 52.2%

Team Comparison Junior vs Fortaleza FC

78.93% Pass accuracy 80.26%
379.17 Passes per match 381.35
0 Goals prevented 0
10.2 Fouls committed 10.85
3.54 Goalkeeper saves 2.57
1.55 Offsides 1.89
12.63 Tackles per match 11.02

League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Junior vs Fortaleza FC prediction analysis

Review Junior vs Fortaleza FC with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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