Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Juventus vs Borussia Dortmund

Juventus vs Borussia Dortmund prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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UEFA Champions League 2025-09-16 19:00
Juventus
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
83%
Confidence
High
Score
2-1
Borussia Dortmund
Away

Prediction Summary

1
61%
X
17%
2
22%
Over 2.5
83%
BTTS Yes
77%
Confidence
High

Market Evidence

Juventus (Home)

Goals scored / match2.4
Goals conceded / match1.4
Over 2.5 rate40%
BTTS rate60%

Borussia Dortmund (Away)

Goals scored / match2
Goals conceded / match3.2
Over 2.5 rate40%
BTTS rate80%

Team Form last 5 matches

Juventus
WLDWW
Borussia Dortmund
LWLLD

Goals Comparison rate per team

100% +0.5 80%
80% +1.5 40%
40% +2.5 40%
20% +3.5 40%
0% +4.5 0%
60% BTTS 80%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 83%. Model confidence is High.

Juventus averages 2.4 goals scored at home, while Borussia Dortmund averages 2 goals scored away.

Model Strength
83%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
61%
Draw
17%
Away Win
22%
Over 2.5
83%
BTTS Yes
77%

Head-to-Head last 1

Sep 2025 Juventus 4 - 4 Borussia Dortmund Draw

In the last 1 meetings, Juventus won 0, drew 1 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Juventus — unbeaten run (home)5
Juventus — scoring streak (home)5
Borussia Dortmund — winless run (away)3
Borussia Dortmund — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Juventus Win (1)61%
Draw (X)17%
Borussia Dortmund Win (2)22%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

100% +0.5 80%
80% +1.5 40%
40% +2.5 40%
20% +3.5 40%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

0% -0.5 20%
20% -1.5 60%
60% -2.5 60%
80% -3.5 60%
100% -4.5 100%

Juventus vs Borussia Dortmund — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Juventus — scored (home)2.4
Juventus — conceded (home)1.4
Borussia Dortmund — scored (away)2
Borussia Dortmund — conceded (away)3.2
Model expected combined goals4.5

Both Teams To Score

Yes77%
No23%

Rate per Team

Juventus — BTTS matches (home)60%
Borussia Dortmund — BTTS matches (away)80%
Combined (simple average)70%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.5100%
Under 5.50%
Over 6.550%
Under 6.550%
Over 7.550%
Under 7.550%
Over 8.540%
Under 8.560%
Over 9.540%
Under 9.560%
Over 10.540%
Under 10.560%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Juventus (home)

Corners for7.2
Corners against3.4

Borussia Dortmund (away)

Corners for3.2
Corners against4.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Juventus
17 11 6 10 13
Borussia Dortmund
14 6 8 5 6

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.2

Yellow Cards per Team

Juventus (home)

For1.6

Borussia Dortmund (away)

For1.8

Shots per Game

Juventus — total shots (home)20.4
Borussia Dortmund — total shots (away)8.8

Shots on Target

Juventus — on target (home)6.8
Borussia Dortmund — on target (away)3.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Juventus

Inside the box11.3
Outside the box5

Borussia Dortmund

Inside the box7.5
Outside the box3.5

Player Shots Juventus

D. Vlahović
Shots on Target/Game2.3
+0.5 On Target75%
+1.5 On Target50%
K. Yıldız
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target30%
F. Gatti
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target20%
W. McKennie
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target20%
Francisco Conceição
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target11%

Player Shots Borussia Dortmund

S. Guirassy
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target70%
+1.5 On Target20%
A. Anselmino
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target0%
K. Adeyemi
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target11%
J. Brandt
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target22%
M. Beier
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target22%
+1.5 On Target11%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Juventus xG (home)1.96
Borussia Dortmund xG (away)1.66

Average Possession

47.5% Possession 53.5%

Team Comparison Juventus vs Borussia Dortmund

83.8% Pass accuracy 84.3%
441.4 Passes per match 505
0.05 Goals prevented -0.33
15.8 Fouls committed 11.3
3.9 Goalkeeper saves 3.2
1.8 Offsides 0.67
14.9 Tackles per match 18.4

League average xG this season is 1.65 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Juventus vs Borussia Dortmund prediction analysis

Review Juventus vs Borussia Dortmund with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from UEFA Champions League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance UEFA Champions League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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