Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen

Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Premiership 2025-10-29 19:45
Kilmarnock
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
34%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Aberdeen
Away

Prediction Summary

1
46%
X
29%
2
25%
Under 2.5
66%
BTTS No
60%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Kilmarnock (Home)

Goals scored / match1.47
Goals conceded / match1.47
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate47%

Aberdeen (Away)

Goals scored / match0.63
Goals conceded / match1.68
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate26%

Team Form last 5 matches

Kilmarnock
WWWWL
Aberdeen
LLWDW

Goals Comparison rate per team

74% +0.5 42%
47% +1.5 16%
21% +2.5 5%
5% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
47% BTTS 26%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 34%. Model confidence is Medium.

Kilmarnock averages 1.47 goals scored at home, while Aberdeen averages 0.63 goals scored away.

Model Strength
66%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
46%
Draw
29%
Away Win
25%
Over 2.5
34%
BTTS Yes
40%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2026 Kilmarnock(A) 0 - 1 Aberdeen Away
Jan 2026 Kilmarnock 3 - 0 Aberdeen Home
Dec 2025 Kilmarnock(A) 1 - 2 Aberdeen Away
Oct 2025 Kilmarnock 0 - 1 Aberdeen Away
Feb 2025 Kilmarnock(A) 0 - 1 Aberdeen Away

In the last 5 meetings, Kilmarnock won 1, drew 0 and lost 4.

Current Streaks

Kilmarnock — unbeaten run (home)5
Kilmarnock — scoring streak (home)9
Aberdeen — winless run (away)12
Aberdeen — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Kilmarnock Win (1)46%
Draw (X)29%
Aberdeen Win (2)25%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

74% +0.5 42%
47% +1.5 16%
21% +2.5 5%
5% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

26% -0.5 58%
53% -1.5 84%
79% -2.5 95%
95% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Kilmarnock — scored (home)1.47
Kilmarnock — conceded (home)1.47
Aberdeen — scored (away)0.63
Aberdeen — conceded (away)1.68
Model expected combined goals2.08

Both Teams To Score

Yes40%
No60%

Rate per Team

Kilmarnock — BTTS matches (home)47%
Aberdeen — BTTS matches (away)26%
Combined (simple average)36.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.598%
Under 4.52%
Over 5.598%
Under 5.52%
Over 6.582%
Under 6.518%
Over 7.574%
Under 7.526%
Over 8.566%
Under 8.534%
Over 9.545%
Under 9.555%
Over 10.532%
Under 10.568%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.30

Per-Team Corners own matches

Kilmarnock (home)

Corners for4.8
Corners against4.4

Aberdeen (away)

Corners for3.6
Corners against5.8

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Kilmarnock
11 12 5 8 7
Aberdeen
11 9 6 7 9

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.595%
Under 0.55%
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.584%
Under 2.516%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.5

Yellow Cards per Team

Kilmarnock (home)

For2.1

Aberdeen (away)

For2.9

Shots per Game

Kilmarnock — total shots (home)13.5
Aberdeen — total shots (away)10.1

Shots on Target

Kilmarnock — on target (home)4.5
Aberdeen — on target (away)2.4

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Kilmarnock

Inside the box7.66
Outside the box3.68

Aberdeen

Inside the box7.42
Outside the box3.87

Player Shots Kilmarnock

T. John-Jules
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target78%
+1.5 On Target22%
J. Hugill
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target27%
Findlay Curtis
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target29%
G. Kiltie
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target6%
D. Daniels
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target14%

Player Shots Aberdeen

J. Karlsson
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target22%
A. Aouchiche
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target10%
K. Nisbet
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target17%
D. Polvara
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target6%
S. Armstrong
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target4%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Kilmarnock xG (home)1.36
Aberdeen xG (away)1.06

Average Possession

42.45% Possession 48.05%

Team Comparison Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen

73.08% Pass accuracy 76.18%
348.76 Passes per match 392.42
0.03 Goals prevented -0.41
13.13 Fouls committed 14.29
3.55 Goalkeeper saves 3.18
1.84 Offsides 1.81
15.47 Tackles per match 15.63

League average xG this season is 1.35 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen prediction analysis

Review Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Premiership.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Premiership
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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