Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Kilmarnock vs Dundee

Kilmarnock vs Dundee prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Premiership 2025-08-23 14:00
Kilmarnock
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
49%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Dundee
Away

Prediction Summary

1
51%
X
25%
2
24%
Under 2.5
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Kilmarnock (Home)

Goals scored / match1.47
Goals conceded / match1.47
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate47%

Dundee (Away)

Goals scored / match0.58
Goals conceded / match1.74
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate32%

Team Form last 5 matches

Kilmarnock
WWWWL
Dundee
WLWWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

74% +0.5 37%
47% +1.5 16%
21% +2.5 5%
5% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
47% BTTS 32%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 49%. Model confidence is Low.

Kilmarnock averages 1.47 goals scored at home, while Dundee averages 0.58 goals scored away.

Model Strength
51%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
51%
Draw
25%
Away Win
24%
Over 2.5
49%
BTTS Yes
51%

Head-to-Head last 5

May 2026 Kilmarnock 3 - 1 Dundee Home
Apr 2026 Kilmarnock 2 - 2 Dundee Draw
Jan 2026 Kilmarnock 1 - 2 Dundee Away
Dec 2025 Kilmarnock(A) 1 - 2 Dundee Away
Aug 2025 Kilmarnock 0 - 0 Dundee Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Kilmarnock won 1, drew 2 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Kilmarnock — unbeaten run (home)5
Kilmarnock — scoring streak (home)9
Dundee — winless run (away)4
Dundee — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Kilmarnock Win (1)51%
Draw (X)25%
Dundee Win (2)24%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

74% +0.5 37%
47% +1.5 16%
21% +2.5 5%
5% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

26% -0.5 63%
53% -1.5 84%
79% -2.5 95%
95% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Kilmarnock vs Dundee — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Kilmarnock — scored (home)1.47
Kilmarnock — conceded (home)1.47
Dundee — scored (away)0.58
Dundee — conceded (away)1.74
Model expected combined goals2.63

Both Teams To Score

Yes51%
No49%

Rate per Team

Kilmarnock — BTTS matches (home)47%
Dundee — BTTS matches (away)32%
Combined (simple average)39.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.598%
Under 4.52%
Over 5.595%
Under 5.55%
Over 6.579%
Under 6.521%
Over 7.574%
Under 7.526%
Over 8.553%
Under 8.547%
Over 9.545%
Under 9.555%
Over 10.532%
Under 10.568%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Kilmarnock (home)

Corners for4.8
Corners against4.4

Dundee (away)

Corners for3.3
Corners against5.6

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Kilmarnock
11 12 5 8 7
Dundee
6 11 12 8 9

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.582%
Under 2.518%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.1

Yellow Cards per Team

Kilmarnock (home)

For2.1

Dundee (away)

For1.5

Shots per Game

Kilmarnock — total shots (home)13.5
Dundee — total shots (away)9.2

Shots on Target

Kilmarnock — on target (home)4.5
Dundee — on target (away)2.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Kilmarnock

Inside the box7.66
Outside the box3.68

Dundee

Inside the box6
Outside the box4.03

Player Shots Kilmarnock

T. John-Jules
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target78%
+1.5 On Target22%
J. Hugill
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target27%
Findlay Curtis
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target29%
G. Kiltie
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target6%
D. Daniels
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target14%

Player Shots Dundee

C. Congreve
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target9%
Y. Dhanda
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target11%
E. Hamilton
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target6%
S. Murray
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target3%
J. Westley
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target9%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Kilmarnock xG (home)1.36
Dundee xG (away)1.11

Average Possession

42.45% Possession 43.66%

Team Comparison Kilmarnock vs Dundee

73.08% Pass accuracy 75.21%
348.76 Passes per match 353.37
0.03 Goals prevented -0.35
13.13 Fouls committed 9.34
3.55 Goalkeeper saves 3.71
1.84 Offsides 1.44
15.47 Tackles per match 13.68

League average xG this season is 1.35 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Kilmarnock vs Dundee prediction analysis

Review Kilmarnock vs Dundee with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Premiership.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Premiership
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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