Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Kilmarnock vs Falkirk

Kilmarnock vs Falkirk prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Premiership 2025-12-20 15:00
Kilmarnock
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
47%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Falkirk
Away

Prediction Summary

1
36%
X
27%
2
37%
Under 2.5
53%
BTTS Yes
52%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Kilmarnock (Home)

Goals scored / match1.47
Goals conceded / match1.47
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate47%

Falkirk (Away)

Goals scored / match0.94
Goals conceded / match1.56
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate33%

Team Form last 5 matches

Kilmarnock
WWWWL
Falkirk
LLLWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

74% +0.5 56%
47% +1.5 28%
21% +2.5 11%
5% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
47% BTTS 33%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 47%. Model confidence is Low.

Kilmarnock averages 1.47 goals scored at home, while Falkirk averages 0.94 goals scored away.

Model Strength
53%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
36%
Draw
27%
Away Win
37%
Over 2.5
47%
BTTS Yes
52%

Head-to-Head last 4

Feb 2026 Kilmarnock(A) 1 - 5 Falkirk Away
Dec 2025 Kilmarnock 0 - 1 Falkirk Away
Nov 2025 Kilmarnock(A) 1 - 3 Falkirk Away
Oct 2020 Kilmarnock(A) 0 - 3 Falkirk Away

In the last 4 meetings, Kilmarnock won 0, drew 0 and lost 4.

Current Streaks

Kilmarnock — unbeaten run (home)5
Kilmarnock — scoring streak (home)9
Falkirk — winless run (away)2
Falkirk — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Kilmarnock Win (1)36%
Draw (X)27%
Falkirk Win (2)37%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

74% +0.5 56%
47% +1.5 28%
21% +2.5 11%
5% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

26% -0.5 44%
53% -1.5 72%
79% -2.5 89%
95% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Kilmarnock vs Falkirk — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Kilmarnock — scored (home)1.47
Kilmarnock — conceded (home)1.47
Falkirk — scored (away)0.94
Falkirk — conceded (away)1.56
Model expected combined goals2.54

Both Teams To Score

Yes52%
No48%

Rate per Team

Kilmarnock — BTTS matches (home)47%
Falkirk — BTTS matches (away)33%
Combined (simple average)40%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.595%
Under 4.55%
Over 5.595%
Under 5.55%
Over 6.587%
Under 6.513%
Over 7.584%
Under 7.516%
Over 8.574%
Under 8.526%
Over 9.557%
Under 9.543%
Over 10.538%
Under 10.562%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Kilmarnock (home)

Corners for4.8
Corners against4.4

Falkirk (away)

Corners for5.1
Corners against5.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Kilmarnock
11 12 5 8 7
Falkirk
16 7 11 10 11

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.586%
Under 2.514%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.5

Yellow Cards per Team

Kilmarnock (home)

For2.1

Falkirk (away)

For2.6

Shots per Game

Kilmarnock — total shots (home)13.5
Falkirk — total shots (away)11.0

Shots on Target

Kilmarnock — on target (home)4.5
Falkirk — on target (away)3.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Kilmarnock

Inside the box7.66
Outside the box3.68

Falkirk

Inside the box7.42
Outside the box4.37

Player Shots Kilmarnock

T. John-Jules
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target78%
+1.5 On Target22%
J. Hugill
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target27%
Findlay Curtis
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target29%
G. Kiltie
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target6%
D. Daniels
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target14%

Player Shots Falkirk

B. Stewart
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target18%
R. MacIver
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target17%
C. Miller
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target16%
Brian Graham
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target5%
B. Broggio
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Kilmarnock xG (home)1.36
Falkirk xG (away)1.37

Average Possession

42.45% Possession 50.79%

Team Comparison Kilmarnock vs Falkirk

73.08% Pass accuracy 76.66%
348.76 Passes per match 400.39
0.03 Goals prevented -0.43
13.13 Fouls committed 12.05
3.55 Goalkeeper saves 3.03
1.84 Offsides 2.14
15.47 Tackles per match 18.11

League average xG this season is 1.35 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Kilmarnock vs Falkirk prediction analysis

Review Kilmarnock vs Falkirk with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Premiership.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Premiership
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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