Prediction Analysis: KV Mechelen vs Union St. Gilloise
KV Mechelen vs Union St. Gilloise prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Jupiler Pro League
2025-11-09
18:15
KV Mechelen
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
47%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Union St. Gilloise
Away
Prediction Summary
1
29%
X
26%
2
45%
Under 2.5
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
Confidence
Low
Market Evidence
KV Mechelen (Home)
Goals scored / match1.2
Goals conceded / match1.25
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate65%
Union St. Gilloise (Away)
Goals scored / match1.15
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate20%
BTTS rate55%
Team Form last 5 matches
KV Mechelen
LDDLW
Union St. Gilloise
WDLWL
Goals Comparison rate per team
85%
+0.5
65%
30%
+1.5
25%
5%
+2.5
20%
0%
+3.5
5%
0%
+4.5
0%
65%
BTTS
55%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 47%. Model confidence is Low.
KV Mechelen averages 1.2 goals scored at home, while Union St. Gilloise averages 1.15 goals scored away.
Model Strength
53%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
29%
Draw
26%
Away Win
45%
Over 2.5
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
Head-to-Head last 5
May 2026
KV Mechelen(A)
0 - 3
Union St. Gilloise
Away
Apr 2026
KV Mechelen
0 - 1
Union St. Gilloise
Away
Jan 2026
KV Mechelen(A)
0 - 1
Union St. Gilloise
Away
Nov 2025
KV Mechelen
1 - 1
Union St. Gilloise
Draw
Feb 2025
KV Mechelen(A)
1 - 0
Union St. Gilloise
Home
In the last 5 meetings, KV Mechelen won 1, drew 1 and lost 3.
Current Streaks
KV Mechelen — unbeaten run (home)2
KV Mechelen — scoring streak (home)4
Union St. Gilloise — winless run (away)3
Union St. Gilloise — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
KV Mechelen Win (1)29%
Draw (X)26%
Union St. Gilloise Win (2)45%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
85%
+0.5
65%
30%
+1.5
25%
5%
+2.5
20%
0%
+3.5
5%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
15%
-0.5
35%
70%
-1.5
75%
95%
-2.5
80%
100%
-3.5
95%
100%
-4.5
100%
KV Mechelen vs Union St. Gilloise — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
KV Mechelen — scored (home)1.2
KV Mechelen — conceded (home)1.25
Union St. Gilloise — scored (away)1.15
Union St. Gilloise — conceded (away)1
Model expected combined goals2.55
Both Teams To Score
Yes51%
No49%
Rate per Team
KV Mechelen — BTTS matches (home)65%
Union St. Gilloise — BTTS matches (away)55%
Combined (simple average)60%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.598%
Under 5.52%
Over 6.593%
Under 6.57%
Over 7.580%
Under 7.520%
Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.540%
Under 10.560%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.10
Per-Team Corners own matches
KV Mechelen (home)
Corners for4.4
Corners against5.8
Union St. Gilloise (away)
Corners for5.4
Corners against4.6
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
KV Mechelen
11
6
4
8
4
Union St. Gilloise
10
6
16
13
5
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.595%
Under 0.55%
Over 1.593%
Under 1.57%
Over 2.585%
Under 2.515%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.6
Yellow Cards per Team
KV Mechelen (home)
For2.1
Union St. Gilloise (away)
For3.1
Shots per Game
KV Mechelen — total shots (home)10.6
Union St. Gilloise — total shots (away)14.1
Shots on Target
KV Mechelen — on target (home)3.5
Union St. Gilloise — on target (away)4.7
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
KV Mechelen
Inside the box6.78
Outside the box3.08
Union St. Gilloise
Inside the box10.98
Outside the box4.2
Player Shots KV Mechelen
L. Lauberbach
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target68%
+1.5 On Target32%
R. Schoofs
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target33%
Bouke Boersma
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target18%
M. van Brederode
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target6%
B. Raman
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target3%
Player Shots Union St. Gilloise
P. David
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target29%
M. Biondic
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target27%
K. Rodríguez
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target32%
R. Sykes
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target59%
+1.5 On Target16%
R. Florucz
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target8%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
KV Mechelen xG (home)1.15
Union St. Gilloise xG (away)1.7
Average Possession
49.28%
Possession
52.1%
Team Comparison KV Mechelen vs Union St. Gilloise
79.43%
Pass accuracy
79.8%
408.45
Passes per match
431.95
0.1
Goals prevented
0.07
10.35
Fouls committed
12.1
4
Goalkeeper saves
1.85
1.46
Offsides
2.53
16.55
Tackles per match
18.43
League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
KV Mechelen vs Union St. Gilloise prediction analysis
Review KV Mechelen vs Union St. Gilloise with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Jupiler Pro League.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Jupiler Pro League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights