Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz

Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Bundesliga 2025-08-01 18:30
Lask Linz
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
60%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Sturm Graz
Away

Prediction Summary

1
33%
X
24%
2
43%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Yes
62%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Lask Linz (Home)

Goals scored / match1.75
Goals conceded / match1.19
Over 2.5 rate31%
BTTS rate56%

Sturm Graz (Away)

Goals scored / match2.13
Goals conceded / match1.13
Over 2.5 rate31%
BTTS rate56%

Team Form last 5 matches

Lask Linz
WWWWD
Sturm Graz
WWDDD

Goals Comparison rate per team

88% +0.5 94%
50% +1.5 63%
31% +2.5 31%
6% +3.5 19%
0% +4.5 6%
56% BTTS 56%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 60%. Model confidence is Medium.

Lask Linz averages 1.75 goals scored at home, while Sturm Graz averages 2.13 goals scored away.

Model Strength
62%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
33%
Draw
24%
Away Win
43%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Yes
62%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2026 Lask Linz(A) 1 - 1 Sturm Graz Draw
Apr 2026 Lask Linz 1 - 1 Sturm Graz Draw
Nov 2025 Lask Linz(A) 3 - 1 Sturm Graz Home
Aug 2025 Lask Linz 0 - 2 Sturm Graz Away
Mar 2025 Lask Linz(A) 2 - 4 Sturm Graz Away

In the last 5 meetings, Lask Linz won 1, drew 2 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Lask Linz — unbeaten run (home)6
Lask Linz — scoring streak (home)4
Sturm Graz — winless run (away)0
Sturm Graz — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Lask Linz Win (1)33%
Draw (X)24%
Sturm Graz Win (2)43%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

88% +0.5 94%
50% +1.5 63%
31% +2.5 31%
6% +3.5 19%
0% +4.5 6%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

12% -0.5 6%
50% -1.5 37%
69% -2.5 69%
94% -3.5 81%
100% -4.5 94%

Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Lask Linz — scored (home)1.75
Lask Linz — conceded (home)1.19
Sturm Graz — scored (away)2.13
Sturm Graz — conceded (away)1.13
Model expected combined goals3.09

Both Teams To Score

Yes62%
No38%

Rate per Team

Lask Linz — BTTS matches (home)56%
Sturm Graz — BTTS matches (away)56%
Combined (simple average)56%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.597%
Under 4.53%
Over 5.597%
Under 5.53%
Over 6.597%
Under 6.53%
Over 7.591%
Under 7.59%
Over 8.578%
Under 8.522%
Over 9.557%
Under 9.543%
Over 10.544%
Under 10.556%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.50

Per-Team Corners own matches

Lask Linz (home)

Corners for6.3
Corners against4.6

Sturm Graz (away)

Corners for5.4
Corners against4.8

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Lask Linz
12 8 4 9 13
Sturm Graz
12 7 13 9 12

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.572%
Under 2.528%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.3

Yellow Cards per Team

Lask Linz (home)

For1.6

Sturm Graz (away)

For2.7

Shots per Game

Lask Linz — total shots (home)17.3
Sturm Graz — total shots (away)15.4

Shots on Target

Lask Linz — on target (home)5.1
Sturm Graz — on target (away)5.3

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Lask Linz

Inside the box9.97
Outside the box5.59

Sturm Graz

Inside the box9.91
Outside the box5.78

Player Shots Lask Linz

S. Adeniran
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target73%
+1.5 On Target30%
M. Usor
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target70%
+1.5 On Target17%
S. Kalajdzic
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target13%
K. Jørgensen
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target6%
X. Mbuyamba
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Sturm Graz

O. Kiteishvili
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target28%
M. Malone
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target21%
M. Johnston
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target0%
L. Grgić
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target13%
T. Horvat
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target12%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Lask Linz xG (home)1.97
Sturm Graz xG (away)1.68

Average Possession

49% Possession 53.97%

Team Comparison Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz

79.16% Pass accuracy 75.13%
390.38 Passes per match 388.34
0.02 Goals prevented 0.11
10.81 Fouls committed 11.59
2.47 Goalkeeper saves 2.59
1.44 Offsides 1.57
15.56 Tackles per match 17.69

League average xG this season is 1.34 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz prediction analysis

Review Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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