What markets are included in the Lazio vs AC Milan prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Lazio vs AC Milan prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Lazio vs AC Milan

Lazio vs AC Milan prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2026-09-13 16:30

Lazio

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

45%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-1

AC Milan

Away

Prediction Summary

29%

27%

44%

+2.5 Goals

45%

BTTS

50%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Lazio (Home)

Goals scored / match1.42

Goals conceded / match1.32

Over 2.5 rate21%

BTTS rate42%

AC Milan (Away)

Goals scored / match1.47

Goals conceded / match0.74

Over 2.5 rate21%

BTTS rate42%

Team Form last 5 matches

Lazio

WLLWD

AC Milan

LWLLD

Goals Comparison rate per team

68% +0.5 79%

47% +1.5 47%

21% +2.5 21%

5% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

42% BTTS 42%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 45%. Model confidence is Medium.

Lazio averages 1.42 goals scored at home, while AC Milan averages 1.47 goals scored away.

Model Strength

55%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

29%

Draw

27%

Away Win

44%

Over 2.5

45%

BTTS Yes

50%

Head-to-Head last 5

Mar 2026 Lazio 1 - 0 AC Milan Home

Nov 2025 Lazio(A) 0 - 1 AC Milan Away

Mar 2025 Lazio(A) 2 - 1 AC Milan Home

Aug 2024 Lazio 2 - 2 AC Milan Draw

Mar 2024 Lazio 0 - 1 AC Milan Away

In the last 5 meetings, Lazio won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Lazio — unbeaten run (home)1

Lazio — scoring streak (home)1

AC Milan — winless run (away)0

AC Milan — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Lazio Win (1)29%

Draw (X)27%

AC Milan Win (2)44%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

68% +0.5 79%

47% +1.5 47%

21% +2.5 21%

5% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

32% -0.5 21%

53% -1.5 53%

79% -2.5 79%

95% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Lazio vs AC Milan — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Lazio — scored (home)1.42

Lazio — conceded (home)1.32

AC Milan — scored (away)1.47

AC Milan — conceded (away)0.74

Model expected combined goals2.47

Both Teams To Score

Yes50%

No50%

Rate per Team

Lazio — BTTS matches (home)42%

AC Milan — BTTS matches (away)42%

Combined (simple average)42%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.553%

Under 8.547%

Over 9.543%

Under 9.557%

Over 10.533%

Under 10.567%

Expected total corners (model prediction)9.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Lazio (home)

Corners for4.6

Corners against3.6

AC Milan (away)

Corners for3.6

Corners against4.9

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Lazio

9 6 6 11 6

AC Milan

4 5 4 8 10

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%

Under 0.52%

Over 1.592%

Under 1.58%

Over 2.571%

Under 2.529%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.9

Yellow Cards per Team

Lazio (home)

For2.3

AC Milan (away)

For1.5

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.569%

Under 19.531%

Over 22.555%

Under 22.545%

Over 25.541%

Under 25.559%

Expected total shots24.41

Lazio

Shots Over 9.573%

Shots Over 11.558%

Shots Over 13.542%

Expected shots12.99

On Target Over 3.561%

On Target Over 4.544%

On Target Over 5.529%

Expected on target4.40

AC Milan

Shots Over 9.563%

Shots Over 11.545%

Shots Over 13.530%

Expected shots11.42

On Target Over 3.556%

On Target Over 4.538%

On Target Over 5.524%

Expected on target4.08

Shots per Game

Lazio — total shots (home)12.2

AC Milan — total shots (away)10.4

Shots on Target

Lazio — on target (home)4.7

AC Milan — on target (away)3.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Lazio

Inside the box6.68

Outside the box4.29

AC Milan

Inside the box9.16

Outside the box4.08

Player Shots Lazio

V. Castellanos

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target64%

+1.5 On Target9%

G. Isaksen

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target10%

M. Cancellieri

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target20%

M. Zaccagni

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target42%

+1.5 On Target12%

T. Bašić

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target39%

+1.5 On Target13%

Player Shots AC Milan

C. Pulišić

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target60%

+1.5 On Target17%

Rafael Leão

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target24%

S. Giménez

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target44%

+1.5 On Target13%

Y. Fofana

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target55%

+1.5 On Target0%

C. Nkunku

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target9%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Lazio xG (home)1.12

AC Milan xG (away)1.59

Average Possession

50.34% Possession 51.84%

Team Comparison Lazio vs AC Milan

85.92% Pass accuracy 86.74%

491.95 Passes per match 483.74

0.21 Goals prevented 0.2

10.58 Fouls committed 10.11

3.16 Goalkeeper saves 2.95

1.06 Offsides 1.92

12.66 Tackles per match 14.5

League average xG this season is 1.26 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Lazio vs AC Milan prediction analysis

Review Lazio vs AC Milan with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights