Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Lazio vs Bologna

Lazio vs Bologna prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-12-07 17:00
Lazio
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
50%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Bologna
Away

Prediction Summary

1
44%
X
26%
2
30%
O/U 2.5 · No edge
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Lazio (Home)

Goals scored / match1.42
Goals conceded / match1.32
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate42%

Bologna (Away)

Goals scored / match1.58
Goals conceded / match1.21
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate58%

Team Form last 5 matches

Lazio
WLLWD
Bologna
DWWDL

Goals Comparison rate per team

68% +0.5 84%
47% +1.5 53%
21% +2.5 21%
5% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
42% BTTS 58%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 50%. Model confidence is Low.

Lazio averages 1.42 goals scored at home, while Bologna averages 1.58 goals scored away.

Model Strength
54%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
44%
Draw
26%
Away Win
30%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Yes
54%

Head-to-Head last 5

Mar 2026 Lazio(A) 2 - 0 Bologna Home
Feb 2026 Lazio(A) 1 - 1 Bologna Draw
Dec 2025 Lazio 1 - 1 Bologna Draw
Mar 2025 Lazio(A) 0 - 5 Bologna Away
Nov 2024 Lazio 3 - 0 Bologna Home

In the last 5 meetings, Lazio won 2, drew 2 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Lazio — unbeaten run (home)1
Lazio — scoring streak (home)1
Bologna — winless run (away)0
Bologna — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Lazio Win (1)44%
Draw (X)26%
Bologna Win (2)30%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

68% +0.5 84%
47% +1.5 53%
21% +2.5 21%
5% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

32% -0.5 16%
53% -1.5 47%
79% -2.5 79%
95% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Lazio vs Bologna — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Lazio — scored (home)1.42
Lazio — conceded (home)1.32
Bologna — scored (away)1.58
Bologna — conceded (away)1.21
Model expected combined goals2.69

Both Teams To Score

Yes54%
No46%

Rate per Team

Lazio — BTTS matches (home)42%
Bologna — BTTS matches (away)58%
Combined (simple average)50%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.598%
Under 4.52%
Over 5.595%
Under 5.55%
Over 6.577%
Under 6.523%
Over 7.563%
Under 7.537%
Over 8.550%
Under 8.550%
Over 9.529%
Under 9.571%
Over 10.516%
Under 10.584%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.30

Per-Team Corners own matches

Lazio (home)

Corners for4.6
Corners against3.6

Bologna (away)

Corners for3.7
Corners against4.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Lazio
9 6 6 11 6
Bologna
14 9 8 7 5

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.577%
Under 2.523%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.3

Yellow Cards per Team

Lazio (home)

For2.3

Bologna (away)

For2.2

Shots per Game

Lazio — total shots (home)12.2
Bologna — total shots (away)11.0

Shots on Target

Lazio — on target (home)4.7
Bologna — on target (away)3.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Lazio

Inside the box6.68
Outside the box4.29

Bologna

Inside the box8.08
Outside the box4.79

Player Shots Lazio

V. Castellanos
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target9%
G. Isaksen
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target10%
M. Cancellieri
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target20%
M. Zaccagni
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target12%
T. Bašić
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target13%

Player Shots Bologna

R. Orsolini
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target23%
J. Rowe
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target11%
S. Castro
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target17%
J. Odgaard
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%
F. Bernardeschi
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target10%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Lazio xG (home)1.12
Bologna xG (away)1.17

Average Possession

50.34% Possession 55.05%

Team Comparison Lazio vs Bologna

85.92% Pass accuracy 82.39%
491.95 Passes per match 443.82
0.21 Goals prevented 0.07
10.58 Fouls committed 13.16
3.16 Goalkeeper saves 2.42
1.06 Offsides 1.97
12.66 Tackles per match 14.24

League average xG this season is 1.26 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Lazio vs Bologna prediction analysis

Review Lazio vs Bologna with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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