Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Lazio vs Juventus

Lazio vs Juventus prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-05-10 16:00
Lazio
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
54%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Juventus
Away

Prediction Summary

1
39%
X
25%
2
36%
Over 2.5
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Lazio (Home)

Goals scored / match1.74
Goals conceded / match1.37
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate79%

Juventus (Away)

Goals scored / match1.42
Goals conceded / match1.05
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate58%

Team Form last 5 matches

Lazio
LDDWD
Juventus
WWDDW

Goals Comparison rate per team

89% +0.5 79%
53% +1.5 37%
21% +2.5 21%
5% +3.5 5%
5% +4.5 0%
79% BTTS 58%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 54%. Model confidence is Medium.

Lazio averages 1.74 goals scored at home, while Juventus averages 1.42 goals scored away.

Model Strength
57%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
39%
Draw
25%
Away Win
36%
Over 2.5
54%
BTTS Yes
57%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 Lazio(A) 2 - 2 Juventus Draw
Oct 2025 Lazio 1 - 0 Juventus Home
May 2025 Lazio 1 - 1 Juventus Draw
Oct 2024 Lazio(A) 0 - 1 Juventus Away
Apr 2024 Lazio 2 - 1 Juventus Home

In the last 5 meetings, Lazio won 2, drew 2 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Lazio — unbeaten run (home)0
Lazio — scoring streak (home)0
Juventus — winless run (away)0
Juventus — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Lazio Win (1)39%
Draw (X)25%
Juventus Win (2)36%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

89% +0.5 79%
53% +1.5 37%
21% +2.5 21%
5% +3.5 5%
5% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

11% -0.5 21%
47% -1.5 63%
79% -2.5 79%
95% -3.5 95%
95% -4.5 100%

Lazio vs Juventus — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Lazio — scored (home)1.74
Lazio — conceded (home)1.37
Juventus — scored (away)1.42
Juventus — conceded (away)1.05
Model expected combined goals2.82

Both Teams To Score

Yes57%
No43%

Rate per Team

Lazio — BTTS matches (home)79%
Juventus — BTTS matches (away)58%
Combined (simple average)68.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.598%
Under 4.52%
Over 5.592%
Under 5.58%
Over 6.577%
Under 6.523%
Over 7.571%
Under 7.529%
Over 8.558%
Under 8.542%
Over 9.548%
Under 9.552%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.90

Per-Team Corners own matches

Lazio (home)

Corners for6.3
Corners against3.7

Juventus (away)

Corners for4.2
Corners against5.5

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Lazio
6 9 6 6 18
Juventus
5 13 6 15 12

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.595%
Under 1.55%
Over 2.585%
Under 2.515%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.7

Yellow Cards per Team

Lazio (home)

For2.4

Juventus (away)

For1.9

Shots per Game

Lazio — total shots (home)15.3
Juventus — total shots (away)11.5

Shots on Target

Lazio — on target (home)5.5
Juventus — on target (away)4.6

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Lazio

Inside the box9.05
Outside the box5.05

Juventus

Inside the box9.13
Outside the box4.42

Player Shots Lazio

V. Castellanos
Shots on Target/Game1.9
+0.5 On Target76%
+1.5 On Target41%
Pedro
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target13%
G. Isaksen
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target49%
+1.5 On Target16%
Mario Gila
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target9%
+1.5 On Target3%
A. Marušić
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target23%
+1.5 On Target6%

Player Shots Juventus

N. González
Shots on Target/Game1.9
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target23%
P. Kalulu
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target7%
+1.5 On Target3%
D. Vlahović
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target72%
+1.5 On Target28%
R. Kolo Muani
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target63%
+1.5 On Target25%
K. Yıldız
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target49%
+1.5 On Target11%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Lazio xG (home)1.51
Juventus xG (away)1.35

Average Possession

55.11% Possession 57.55%

Team Comparison Lazio vs Juventus

86.16% Pass accuracy 87.29%
468.58 Passes per match 519.13
0.08 Goals prevented -0.04
11.16 Fouls committed 12.63
1.92 Goalkeeper saves 2.24
1.21 Offsides 1.63
13.68 Tackles per match 15.89

League average xG this season is 1.22 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Lazio vs Juventus prediction analysis

Review Lazio vs Juventus with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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