Prediction Analysis: Lazio vs Monza
Lazio vs Monza prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Serie A
2026-10-11
16:30
Lazio
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
50%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Monza
Away
Prediction Summary
1
46%
X
25%
2
28%
+2.5 Goals
50%
BTTS
53%
Confidence
Low
Market Evidence
Lazio (Home)
Goals scored / match1.42
Goals conceded / match1.32
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate42%
Monza (Away)
Goals scored / match0
Goals conceded / match0
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate0%
Team Form last 5 matches
Lazio
WLLWD
Goals Comparison rate per team
68%
+0.5
0%
47%
+1.5
0%
21%
+2.5
0%
5%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
42%
BTTS
0%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 50%. Model confidence is Low.
Lazio averages 1.42 goals scored at home, while Monza averages 0 goals scored away.
Model Strength
53%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
46%
Draw
25%
Away Win
28%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
Head-to-Head last 5
Feb 2025
Lazio
5 - 1
Monza
Home
Nov 2024
Lazio(A)
1 - 0
Monza
Home
May 2024
Lazio(A)
2 - 2
Monza
Draw
Sep 2023
Lazio
1 - 1
Monza
Draw
Apr 2023
Lazio(A)
2 - 0
Monza
Home
In the last 5 meetings, Lazio won 3, drew 2 and lost 0.
Current Streaks
Lazio — unbeaten run (home)1
Lazio — scoring streak (home)1
1X2 Probability model
Lazio Win (1)46%
Draw (X)25%
Monza Win (2)28%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
68%
+0.5
0%
47%
+1.5
0%
21%
+2.5
0%
5%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
32%
-0.5
100%
53%
-1.5
100%
79%
-2.5
100%
95%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Lazio vs Monza — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Lazio — scored (home)1.42
Lazio — conceded (home)1.32
Monza — scored (away)0
Monza — conceded (away)0
Model expected combined goals2.66
Both Teams To Score
Yes53%
No47%
Rate per Team
Lazio — BTTS matches (home)42%
Monza — BTTS matches (away)0%
Combined (simple average)21%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.553%
Under 8.547%
Over 9.543%
Under 9.557%
Over 10.533%
Under 10.567%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.20
Per-Team Corners own matches
Lazio (home)
Corners for4.6
Corners against3.6
Monza (away)
Corners for—
Corners against—
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Lazio
9
6
6
11
6
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.548%
Under 0.552%
Over 1.548%
Under 1.552%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.4
Yellow Cards per Team
Lazio (home)
For2.3
Monza (away)
For—
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.569%
Under 19.531%
Over 22.555%
Under 22.545%
Over 25.541%
Under 25.559%
Expected total shots24.36
Lazio
Shots Over 9.579%
Shots Over 11.565%
Shots Over 13.551%
Expected shots14.14
On Target Over 3.568%
On Target Over 4.552%
On Target Over 5.537%
Expected on target4.91
Monza
Shots Over 9.553%
Shots Over 11.535%
Shots Over 13.521%
Expected shots10.22
On Target Over 3.545%
On Target Over 4.528%
On Target Over 5.516%
Expected on target3.50
Shots per Game
Lazio — total shots (home)12.2
Monza — total shots (away)—
Shots on Target
Lazio — on target (home)4.7
Monza — on target (away)—
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Lazio
Inside the box6.68
Outside the box4.29
Monza
Inside the box-
Outside the box-
Player Shots Lazio
V. Castellanos
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target9%
G. Isaksen
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target10%
M. Cancellieri
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target20%
M. Zaccagni
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target12%
T. Bašić
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target13%
Player Shots Monza
Not enough dataNot enough player match statistics for this squad.
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Lazio xG (home)1.12
Monza xG (away)-
Average Possession
50.34%
Possession
-%
Team Comparison Lazio vs Monza
85.92%
Pass accuracy
0%
491.95
Passes per match
-
0.21
Goals prevented
-
10.58
Fouls committed
-
3.16
Goalkeeper saves
-
1.06
Offsides
-
12.66
Tackles per match
-
League average xG this season is 1.26 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Lazio vs Monza prediction analysis
Review Lazio vs Monza with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights