Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Le Havre vs Lorient

Le Havre vs Lorient prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Ligue 1 2025-09-21 15:15
Le Havre
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
43%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Lorient
Away

Prediction Summary

1
44%
X
27%
2
29%
Under 2.5
57%
BTTS No
52%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Le Havre (Home)

Goals scored / match1.18
Goals conceded / match1.06
Over 2.5 rate12%
BTTS rate59%

Lorient (Away)

Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match1.53
Over 2.5 rate18%
BTTS rate35%

Team Form last 5 matches

Le Havre
WLDDD
Lorient
LWDLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

65% +0.5 47%
35% +1.5 29%
12% +2.5 18%
6% +3.5 6%
0% +4.5 0%
59% BTTS 35%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 43%. Model confidence is Medium.

Le Havre averages 1.18 goals scored at home, while Lorient averages 1 goals scored away.

Model Strength
57%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
44%
Draw
27%
Away Win
29%
Over 2.5
43%
BTTS Yes
48%

Head-to-Head last 5

May 2026 Le Havre(A) 2 - 0 Lorient Home
Sep 2025 Le Havre 1 - 1 Lorient Draw
Jan 2024 Le Havre(A) 3 - 3 Lorient Draw
Sep 2023 Le Havre 3 - 0 Lorient Home
Oct 2019 Le Havre 2 - 2 Lorient Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Le Havre won 2, drew 3 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Le Havre — unbeaten run (home)0
Le Havre — scoring streak (home)0
Lorient — winless run (away)0
Lorient — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Le Havre Win (1)44%
Draw (X)27%
Lorient Win (2)29%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

65% +0.5 47%
35% +1.5 29%
12% +2.5 18%
6% +3.5 6%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

35% -0.5 53%
65% -1.5 71%
88% -2.5 82%
94% -3.5 94%
100% -4.5 100%

Le Havre vs Lorient — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Le Havre — scored (home)1.18
Le Havre — conceded (home)1.06
Lorient — scored (away)1
Lorient — conceded (away)1.53
Model expected combined goals2.38

Both Teams To Score

Yes48%
No52%

Rate per Team

Le Havre — BTTS matches (home)59%
Lorient — BTTS matches (away)35%
Combined (simple average)47%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.591%
Under 4.59%
Over 5.585%
Under 5.515%
Over 6.574%
Under 6.526%
Over 7.562%
Under 7.538%
Over 8.550%
Under 8.550%
Over 9.547%
Under 9.553%
Over 10.532%
Under 10.568%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

Le Havre (home)

Corners for4.8
Corners against3.4

Lorient (away)

Corners for3.8
Corners against5.5

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Le Havre
7 10 19 3 6
Lorient
8 16 14 11 6

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.574%
Under 2.526%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.9

Yellow Cards per Team

Le Havre (home)

For1.8

Lorient (away)

For1.6

Shots per Game

Le Havre — total shots (home)12.0
Lorient — total shots (away)10.7

Shots on Target

Le Havre — on target (home)3.9
Lorient — on target (away)3.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Le Havre

Inside the box6.76
Outside the box4.18

Lorient

Inside the box7.12
Outside the box4.21

Player Shots Le Havre

I. Soumaré
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target59%
+1.5 On Target21%
N. Obougoujacquet
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target0%
M. Samatta
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target11%
R. Khadra
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target13%
A. Touré
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target9%

Player Shots Lorient

B. Dieng
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target73%
+1.5 On Target32%
P. Pagis
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target11%
J. Makengo
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target6%
A. Tosin
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target11%
M. Bamba
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target22%
+1.5 On Target6%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Le Havre xG (home)1.13
Lorient xG (away)1.34

Average Possession

46.82% Possession 45.35%

Team Comparison Le Havre vs Lorient

80.29% Pass accuracy 83.94%
376.03 Passes per match 427.03
-0.05 Goals prevented -0.3
13.71 Fouls committed 9.59
3 Goalkeeper saves 2.47
2.3 Offsides 1.72
17.44 Tackles per match 13.68

League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Le Havre vs Lorient prediction analysis

Review Le Havre vs Lorient with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Ligue 1.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Ligue 1
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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