Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Le Mans vs Lens

Le Mans vs Lens prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Ligue 1 2026-09-12 15:00
Le Mans
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
57%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Lens
Away

Prediction Summary

1
36%
X
24%
2
40%
+2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS
60%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Le Mans (Home)

Goals scored / match0
Goals conceded / match0
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate0%

Lens (Away)

Goals scored / match1.82
Goals conceded / match1.29
Over 2.5 rate29%
BTTS rate59%

Team Form last 5 matches

Lens
WLWDD

Goals Comparison rate per team

0% +0.5 76%
0% +1.5 53%
0% +2.5 29%
0% +3.5 18%
0% +4.5 6%
0% BTTS 59%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 57%. Model confidence is Medium.

Le Mans averages 0 goals scored at home, while Lens averages 1.82 goals scored away.

Model Strength
60%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
36%
Draw
24%
Away Win
40%
Over 2.5
57%
BTTS Yes
60%

Head-to-Head last 1

Jul 2019 Le Mans 1 - 2 Lens Away

In the last 1 meetings, Le Mans won 0, drew 0 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Lens — winless run (away)0
Lens — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Le Mans Win (1)36%
Draw (X)24%
Lens Win (2)40%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

0% +0.5 76%
0% +1.5 53%
0% +2.5 29%
0% +3.5 18%
0% +4.5 6%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

100% -0.5 24%
100% -1.5 47%
100% -2.5 71%
100% -3.5 82%
100% -4.5 94%

Le Mans vs Lens — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Le Mans — scored (home)0
Le Mans — conceded (home)0
Lens — scored (away)1.82
Lens — conceded (away)1.29
Model expected combined goals2.97

Both Teams To Score

Yes60%
No40%

Rate per Team

Le Mans — BTTS matches (home)0%
Lens — BTTS matches (away)59%
Combined (simple average)29.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.557%
Under 8.543%
Over 9.546%
Under 9.554%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.50

Per-Team Corners own matches

Le Mans (home)

Corners for—
Corners against—

Lens (away)

Corners for5.6
Corners against4.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Lens
6 15 11 9 28

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.550%
Under 0.550%
Over 1.550%
Under 1.550%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.5

Yellow Cards per Team

Le Mans (home)

For—

Lens (away)

For2.5

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.572%
Under 19.528%
Over 22.559%
Under 22.541%
Over 25.545%
Under 25.555%
Expected total shots25.24

Le Mans

Shots Over 9.573%
Shots Over 11.558%
Shots Over 13.542%
Expected shots13.00
On Target Over 3.564%
On Target Over 4.548%
On Target Over 5.534%
Expected on target4.68

Lens

Shots Over 9.568%
Shots Over 11.552%
Shots Over 13.536%
Expected shots12.24
On Target Over 3.558%
On Target Over 4.541%
On Target Over 5.527%
Expected on target4.23

Shots per Game

Le Mans — total shots (home)—
Lens — total shots (away)14.6

Shots on Target

Le Mans — on target (home)—
Lens — on target (away)4.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Le Mans

Inside the box-
Outside the box-

Lens

Inside the box11.47
Outside the box4.97

Player Shots Le Mans

Not enough dataNot enough player match statistics for this squad.

Player Shots Lens

O. Édouard
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target69%
+1.5 On Target34%
W. Saïd
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target31%
F. Thauvin
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target21%
M. Udol
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target9%
M. Sangaré
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target10%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Le Mans xG (home)-
Lens xG (away)1.99

Average Possession

-% Possession 51.12%

Team Comparison Le Mans vs Lens

0% Pass accuracy 84.24%
- Passes per match 463.53
- Goals prevented 0.17
- Fouls committed 12.71
- Goalkeeper saves 2.48
- Offsides 2.23
- Tackles per match 18.74

League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Le Mans vs Lens prediction analysis

Review Le Mans vs Lens with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Ligue 1.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Ligue 1
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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