Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Le Mans vs Lorient

Le Mans vs Lorient prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Ligue 1 2026-09-19 15:00
Le Mans
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
50%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Lorient
Away

Prediction Summary

1
47%
X
25%
2
27%
+2.5 Goals
50%
BTTS
53%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Le Mans (Home)

Goals scored / match0
Goals conceded / match0
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate0%

Lorient (Away)

Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match1.53
Over 2.5 rate18%
BTTS rate35%

Team Form last 5 matches

Lorient
LWDLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

0% +0.5 47%
0% +1.5 29%
0% +2.5 18%
0% +3.5 6%
0% +4.5 0%
0% BTTS 35%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 50%. Model confidence is Low.

Le Mans averages 0 goals scored at home, while Lorient averages 1 goals scored away.

Model Strength
53%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
47%
Draw
25%
Away Win
27%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Yes
53%

Head-to-Head last 2

Feb 2020 Le Mans(A) 2 - 4 Lorient Away
Aug 2019 Le Mans 1 - 2 Lorient Away

In the last 2 meetings, Le Mans won 0, drew 0 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Lorient — winless run (away)0
Lorient — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Le Mans Win (1)47%
Draw (X)25%
Lorient Win (2)27%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

0% +0.5 47%
0% +1.5 29%
0% +2.5 18%
0% +3.5 6%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

100% -0.5 53%
100% -1.5 71%
100% -2.5 82%
100% -3.5 94%
100% -4.5 100%

Le Mans vs Lorient — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Le Mans — scored (home)0
Le Mans — conceded (home)0
Lorient — scored (away)1
Lorient — conceded (away)1.53
Model expected combined goals2.68

Both Teams To Score

Yes53%
No47%

Rate per Team

Le Mans — BTTS matches (home)0%
Lorient — BTTS matches (away)35%
Combined (simple average)17.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.557%
Under 8.543%
Over 9.546%
Under 9.554%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.50

Per-Team Corners own matches

Le Mans (home)

Corners for—
Corners against—

Lorient (away)

Corners for3.8
Corners against5.5

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Lorient
8 16 14 11 6

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.550%
Under 0.550%
Over 1.541%
Under 1.559%
Over 2.530%
Under 2.570%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.5

Yellow Cards per Team

Le Mans (home)

For—

Lorient (away)

For1.6

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.570%
Under 19.530%
Over 22.556%
Under 22.544%
Over 25.542%
Under 25.558%
Expected total shots24.61

Le Mans

Shots Over 9.576%
Shots Over 11.561%
Shots Over 13.546%
Expected shots13.56
On Target Over 3.565%
On Target Over 4.549%
On Target Over 5.534%
Expected on target4.73

Lorient

Shots Over 9.560%
Shots Over 11.542%
Shots Over 13.527%
Expected shots11.05
On Target Over 3.553%
On Target Over 4.536%
On Target Over 5.523%
Expected on target3.93

Shots per Game

Le Mans — total shots (home)—
Lorient — total shots (away)10.7

Shots on Target

Le Mans — on target (home)—
Lorient — on target (away)3.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Le Mans

Inside the box-
Outside the box-

Lorient

Inside the box7.12
Outside the box4.21

Player Shots Le Mans

Not enough dataNot enough player match statistics for this squad.

Player Shots Lorient

B. Dieng
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target73%
+1.5 On Target32%
P. Pagis
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target11%
J. Makengo
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target6%
A. Tosin
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target11%
M. Bamba
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target22%
+1.5 On Target6%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Le Mans xG (home)-
Lorient xG (away)1.34

Average Possession

-% Possession 45.35%

Team Comparison Le Mans vs Lorient

0% Pass accuracy 83.94%
- Passes per match 427.03
- Goals prevented -0.3
- Fouls committed 9.59
- Goalkeeper saves 2.47
- Offsides 1.72
- Tackles per match 13.68

League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Le Mans vs Lorient prediction analysis

Review Le Mans vs Lorient with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Ligue 1.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Ligue 1
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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