Prediction Analysis: Lecce vs Bologna
Lecce vs Bologna prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Serie A
2026-10-11
16:30
Lecce
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
42%
Confidence
Medium
Score
0-1
Bologna
Away
Prediction Summary
1
25%
X
27%
2
48%
+2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS
46%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Lecce (Home)
Goals scored / match0.68
Goals conceded / match1.26
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate37%
Bologna (Away)
Goals scored / match1.58
Goals conceded / match1.21
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate58%
Team Form last 5 matches
Lecce
WWLWD
Bologna
DWWDL
Goals Comparison rate per team
47%
+0.5
84%
21%
+1.5
53%
0%
+2.5
21%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
37%
BTTS
58%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 42%. Model confidence is Medium.
Lecce averages 0.68 goals scored at home, while Bologna averages 1.58 goals scored away.
Model Strength
58%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
25%
Draw
27%
Away Win
48%
Over 2.5
42%
BTTS Yes
46%
Head-to-Head last 5
Apr 2026
Lecce(A)
0 - 2
Bologna
Away
Sep 2025
Lecce
2 - 2
Bologna
Draw
Feb 2025
Lecce
0 - 0
Bologna
Draw
Nov 2024
Lecce(A)
0 - 1
Bologna
Away
Feb 2024
Lecce(A)
0 - 4
Bologna
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Lecce won 0, drew 2 and lost 3.
Current Streaks
Lecce — unbeaten run (home)1
Lecce — scoring streak (home)1
Bologna — winless run (away)0
Bologna — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Lecce Win (1)25%
Draw (X)27%
Bologna Win (2)48%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
47%
+0.5
84%
21%
+1.5
53%
0%
+2.5
21%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
53%
-0.5
16%
79%
-1.5
47%
100%
-2.5
79%
100%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Lecce vs Bologna — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Lecce — scored (home)0.68
Lecce — conceded (home)1.26
Bologna — scored (away)1.58
Bologna — conceded (away)1.21
Model expected combined goals2.37
Both Teams To Score
Yes46%
No54%
Rate per Team
Lecce — BTTS matches (home)37%
Bologna — BTTS matches (away)58%
Combined (simple average)47.5%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.553%
Under 8.547%
Over 9.543%
Under 9.557%
Over 10.533%
Under 10.567%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.20
Per-Team Corners own matches
Lecce (home)
Corners for4.2
Corners against4.5
Bologna (away)
Corners for3.7
Corners against4.7
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Lecce
6
7
8
10
7
Bologna
14
9
8
7
5
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.577%
Under 2.523%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4
Yellow Cards per Team
Lecce (home)
For1.8
Bologna (away)
For2.2
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.566%
Under 19.534%
Over 22.551%
Under 22.549%
Over 25.537%
Under 25.563%
Expected total shots23.53
Lecce
Shots Over 9.568%
Shots Over 11.551%
Shots Over 13.536%
Expected shots12.16
On Target Over 3.551%
On Target Over 4.534%
On Target Over 5.520%
Expected on target3.81
Bologna
Shots Over 9.562%
Shots Over 11.545%
Shots Over 13.530%
Expected shots11.36
On Target Over 3.553%
On Target Over 4.536%
On Target Over 5.522%
Expected on target3.94
Shots per Game
Lecce — total shots (home)10.6
Bologna — total shots (away)11.0
Shots on Target
Lecce — on target (home)2.8
Bologna — on target (away)3.8
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Lecce
Inside the box5.68
Outside the box4.13
Bologna
Inside the box8.08
Outside the box4.79
Player Shots Lecce
W. Cheddira
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target12%
L. Banda
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target13%
M. Berisha
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target0%
M. Kaba
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target7%
N. Štulić
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target26%
+1.5 On Target0%
Player Shots Bologna
R. Orsolini
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target23%
J. Rowe
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target11%
S. Castro
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target17%
J. Odgaard
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%
F. Bernardeschi
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target10%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Lecce xG (home)0.82
Bologna xG (away)1.17
Average Possession
41.61%
Possession
55.05%
Team Comparison Lecce vs Bologna
74.34%
Pass accuracy
82.39%
321.13
Passes per match
443.82
0.17
Goals prevented
0.07
12.63
Fouls committed
13.16
2.89
Goalkeeper saves
2.42
1.35
Offsides
1.97
17.68
Tackles per match
14.24
League average xG this season is 1.26 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Lecce vs Bologna prediction analysis
Review Lecce vs Bologna with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights