What markets are included in the Lecce vs Napoli prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Lecce vs Napoli prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Lecce vs Napoli

Lecce vs Napoli prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-05-03 16:00

Lecce

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

43%

Confidence

Medium

Score

0-1

Napoli

Away

Prediction Summary

17%

24%

58%

Under 2.5

57%

BTTS No

57%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Lecce (Home)

Goals scored / match0.68

Goals conceded / match1.63

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate37%

Napoli (Away)

Goals scored / match1.42

Goals conceded / match0.74

Over 2.5 rate21%

BTTS rate42%

Team Form last 5 matches

Lecce

WWDLD

Napoli

WDDWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

53% +0.5 79%

16% +1.5 37%

0% +2.5 21%

0% +3.5 5%

0% +4.5 0%

37% BTTS 42%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 43%. Model confidence is Medium.

Lecce averages 0.68 goals scored at home, while Napoli averages 1.42 goals scored away.

Model Strength

58%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

17%

Draw

24%

Away Win

58%

Over 2.5

43%

BTTS Yes

43%

Head-to-Head last 5

Mar 2026 Lecce(A) 1 - 2 Napoli Away

Oct 2025 Lecce 0 - 1 Napoli Away

May 2025 Lecce 0 - 1 Napoli Away

Oct 2024 Lecce(A) 0 - 1 Napoli Away

May 2024 Lecce(A) 0 - 0 Napoli Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Lecce won 0, drew 1 and lost 4.

Current Streaks

Lecce — unbeaten run (home)1

Lecce — scoring streak (home)1

Napoli — winless run (away)1

Napoli — clean sheets (away, last 5)4 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Lecce Win (1)17%

Draw (X)24%

Napoli Win (2)58%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

53% +0.5 79%

16% +1.5 37%

0% +2.5 21%

0% +3.5 5%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

47% -0.5 21%

84% -1.5 63%

100% -2.5 79%

100% -3.5 95%

100% -4.5 100%

Lecce vs Napoli — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Lecce — scored (home)0.68

Lecce — conceded (home)1.63

Napoli — scored (away)1.42

Napoli — conceded (away)0.74

Model expected combined goals2.41

Both Teams To Score

Yes43%

No57%

Rate per Team

Lecce — BTTS matches (home)37%

Napoli — BTTS matches (away)42%

Combined (simple average)39.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.595%

Under 4.55%

Over 5.590%

Under 5.510%

Over 6.579%

Under 6.521%

Over 7.561%

Under 7.539%

Over 8.555%

Under 8.545%

Over 9.547%

Under 9.553%

Over 10.545%

Under 10.555%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.50

Per-Team Corners own matches

Lecce (home)

Corners for5.2

Corners against5.2

Napoli (away)

Corners for4.2

Corners against4.5

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Lecce

15 7 9 7 18

Napoli

7 7 8 5 11

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.587%

Under 1.513%

Over 2.568%

Under 2.532%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.5

Yellow Cards per Team

Lecce (home)

For1.2

Napoli (away)

For1.4

Shots per Game

Lecce — total shots (home)13.1

Napoli — total shots (away)10.2

Shots on Target

Lecce — on target (home)3.5

Napoli — on target (away)3.3

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Lecce

Inside the box6.68

Outside the box5.26

Napoli

Inside the box9.26

Outside the box4

Player Shots Lecce

K. N’Dri

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target9%

+1.5 On Target9%

Tete Morente

Shots on Target/Game1.6

+0.5 On Target26%

+1.5 On Target13%

N. Krstović

Shots on Target/Game1.6

+0.5 On Target73%

+1.5 On Target24%

P. Dorgu

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target14%

S. Pierotti

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target14%

+1.5 On Target6%

Player Shots Napoli

C. Ngonge

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target17%

+1.5 On Target11%

G. Raspadori

Shots on Target/Game1.6

+0.5 On Target35%

+1.5 On Target8%

P. Billing

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target20%

+1.5 On Target10%

S. McTominay

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target68%

+1.5 On Target24%

K. Kvaratskhelia

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target71%

+1.5 On Target12%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Lecce xG (home)0.92

Napoli xG (away)1.43

Average Possession

43.55% Possession 54.55%

Team Comparison Lecce vs Napoli

77.63% Pass accuracy 86.08%

356.13 Passes per match 485.32

0.18 Goals prevented 0.04

12.24 Fouls committed 10.92

3.39 Goalkeeper saves 1.92

1.37 Offsides 1.49

16.5 Tackles per match 14.08

League average xG this season is 1.22 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Lecce vs Napoli prediction analysis

Review Lecce vs Napoli with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights