Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Lecce vs Udinese

Lecce vs Udinese prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-02-21 19:45
Lecce
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
50%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Udinese
Away

Prediction Summary

1
31%
X
26%
2
43%
O/U 2.5 · No edge
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Lecce (Home)

Goals scored / match0.68
Goals conceded / match1.63
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate37%

Udinese (Away)

Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match1.53
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate63%

Team Form last 5 matches

Lecce
WWDLD
Udinese
LLLWD

Goals Comparison rate per team

53% +0.5 68%
16% +1.5 26%
0% +2.5 5%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
37% BTTS 63%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 50%. Model confidence is Low.

Lecce averages 0.68 goals scored at home, while Udinese averages 1 goals scored away.

Model Strength
54%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
31%
Draw
26%
Away Win
43%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Yes
54%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 Lecce 2 - 1 Udinese Home
Oct 2025 Lecce(A) 2 - 3 Udinese Away
Feb 2025 Lecce 0 - 1 Udinese Away
Oct 2024 Lecce(A) 0 - 1 Udinese Away
May 2024 Lecce 0 - 2 Udinese Away

In the last 5 meetings, Lecce won 1, drew 0 and lost 4.

Current Streaks

Lecce — unbeaten run (home)1
Lecce — scoring streak (home)1
Udinese — winless run (away)1
Udinese — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Lecce Win (1)31%
Draw (X)26%
Udinese Win (2)43%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

53% +0.5 68%
16% +1.5 26%
0% +2.5 5%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

47% -0.5 32%
84% -1.5 74%
100% -2.5 95%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Lecce vs Udinese — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Lecce — scored (home)0.68
Lecce — conceded (home)1.63
Udinese — scored (away)1
Udinese — conceded (away)1.53
Model expected combined goals2.67

Both Teams To Score

Yes54%
No46%

Rate per Team

Lecce — BTTS matches (home)37%
Udinese — BTTS matches (away)63%
Combined (simple average)50%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.592%
Under 4.58%
Over 5.590%
Under 5.510%
Over 6.587%
Under 6.513%
Over 7.574%
Under 7.526%
Over 8.569%
Under 8.531%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.550%
Under 10.550%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.30

Per-Team Corners own matches

Lecce (home)

Corners for5.2
Corners against5.2

Udinese (away)

Corners for4.5
Corners against5.8

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Lecce
15 7 9 7 18
Udinese
11 9 7 15 10

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.595%
Under 1.55%
Over 2.576%
Under 2.524%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4

Yellow Cards per Team

Lecce (home)

For1.2

Udinese (away)

For2.6

Shots per Game

Lecce — total shots (home)13.1
Udinese — total shots (away)10.9

Shots on Target

Lecce — on target (home)3.5
Udinese — on target (away)3.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Lecce

Inside the box6.68
Outside the box5.26

Udinese

Inside the box7.11
Outside the box4.32

Player Shots Lecce

K. N’Dri
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target9%
+1.5 On Target9%
Tete Morente
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target26%
+1.5 On Target13%
N. Krstović
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target73%
+1.5 On Target24%
P. Dorgu
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target14%
S. Pierotti
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target14%
+1.5 On Target6%

Player Shots Udinese

F. Thauvin
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target24%
K. Davis
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target13%
L. Lucca
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target21%
C. Kabasele
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target19%
+1.5 On Target6%
J. Ekkelenkamp
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target21%
+1.5 On Target6%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Lecce xG (home)0.92
Udinese xG (away)1.05

Average Possession

43.55% Possession 47.24%

Team Comparison Lecce vs Udinese

77.63% Pass accuracy 80.89%
356.13 Passes per match 388.42
0.18 Goals prevented -0.07
12.24 Fouls committed 14.21
3.39 Goalkeeper saves 3
1.37 Offsides 1.32
16.5 Tackles per match 14.82

League average xG this season is 1.22 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Lecce vs Udinese prediction analysis

Review Lecce vs Udinese with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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