Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Lecce vs Venezia

Lecce vs Venezia prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-04-06 10:30
Lecce
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
46%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Venezia
Away

Prediction Summary

1
37%
X
27%
2
36%
Under 2.5
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Lecce (Home)

Goals scored / match0.68
Goals conceded / match1.63
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate37%

Venezia (Away)

Goals scored / match0.79
Goals conceded / match1.79
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate58%

Team Form last 5 matches

Lecce
WWDLD
Venezia
LLWDL

Goals Comparison rate per team

53% +0.5 58%
16% +1.5 21%
0% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
37% BTTS 58%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 46%. Model confidence is Low.

Lecce averages 0.68 goals scored at home, while Venezia averages 0.79 goals scored away.

Model Strength
54%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
37%
Draw
27%
Away Win
36%
Over 2.5
46%
BTTS Yes
51%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2025 Lecce 1 - 1 Venezia Draw
Nov 2024 Lecce(A) 1 - 0 Venezia Home
May 2021 Lecce 1 - 1 Venezia Draw
May 2021 Lecce(A) 0 - 1 Venezia Away
Mar 2021 Lecce(A) 3 - 2 Venezia Home

In the last 5 meetings, Lecce won 2, drew 2 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Lecce — unbeaten run (home)1
Lecce — scoring streak (home)1
Venezia — winless run (away)19
Venezia — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Lecce Win (1)37%
Draw (X)27%
Venezia Win (2)36%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

53% +0.5 58%
16% +1.5 21%
0% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

47% -0.5 42%
84% -1.5 79%
100% -2.5 100%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Lecce vs Venezia — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Lecce — scored (home)0.68
Lecce — conceded (home)1.63
Venezia — scored (away)0.79
Venezia — conceded (away)1.79
Model expected combined goals2.5

Both Teams To Score

Yes51%
No49%

Rate per Team

Lecce — BTTS matches (home)37%
Venezia — BTTS matches (away)58%
Combined (simple average)47.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.595%
Under 4.55%
Over 5.592%
Under 5.58%
Over 6.590%
Under 6.510%
Over 7.568%
Under 7.532%
Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.547%
Under 9.553%
Over 10.540%
Under 10.560%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Lecce (home)

Corners for5.2
Corners against5.2

Venezia (away)

Corners for3.5
Corners against6.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Lecce
15 7 9 7 18
Venezia
9 6 6 16 12

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.595%
Under 1.55%
Over 2.574%
Under 2.526%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.6

Yellow Cards per Team

Lecce (home)

For1.2

Venezia (away)

For2.0

Shots per Game

Lecce — total shots (home)13.1
Venezia — total shots (away)9.3

Shots on Target

Lecce — on target (home)3.5
Venezia — on target (away)2.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Lecce

Inside the box6.68
Outside the box5.26

Venezia

Inside the box5.97
Outside the box4.21

Player Shots Lecce

K. N’Dri
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target9%
+1.5 On Target9%
Tete Morente
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target26%
+1.5 On Target13%
N. Krstović
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target73%
+1.5 On Target24%
P. Dorgu
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target14%
S. Pierotti
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target14%
+1.5 On Target6%

Player Shots Venezia

J. Pohjanpalo
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target25%
H. Nicolussi
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target14%
A. Duncan
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target19%
+1.5 On Target6%
G. Oristanio
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target5%
D. Fila
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target10%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Lecce xG (home)0.92
Venezia xG (away)0.99

Average Possession

43.55% Possession 44.84%

Team Comparison Lecce vs Venezia

77.63% Pass accuracy 77.79%
356.13 Passes per match 359.11
0.18 Goals prevented 0.04
12.24 Fouls committed 13.24
3.39 Goalkeeper saves 3.7
1.37 Offsides 1.57
16.5 Tackles per match 15.95

League average xG this season is 1.22 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Lecce vs Venezia prediction analysis

Review Lecce vs Venezia with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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