Prediction Analysis: Leeds vs Brentford
Leeds vs Brentford prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Premier League
2026-08-30
13:00
Leeds
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
51%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Brentford
Away
Prediction Summary
1
48%
X
25%
2
27%
Over 2.5
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
Confidence
Low
Market Evidence
Leeds (Home)
Goals scored / match1.53
Goals conceded / match1.11
Over 2.5 rate32%
BTTS rate53%
Brentford (Away)
Goals scored / match1.16
Goals conceded / match1.63
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate47%
Team Form last 5 matches
Leeds
LWDWD
Brentford
DDLWL
Goals Comparison rate per team
74%
+0.5
63%
42%
+1.5
26%
32%
+2.5
16%
5%
+3.5
11%
0%
+4.5
0%
53%
BTTS
47%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 51%. Model confidence is Low.
Leeds averages 1.53 goals scored at home, while Brentford averages 1.16 goals scored away.
Model Strength
54%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
48%
Draw
25%
Away Win
27%
Over 2.5
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
Head-to-Head last 5
Mar 2026
Leeds
0 - 0
Brentford
Draw
Dec 2025
Leeds(A)
1 - 1
Brentford
Draw
Jan 2023
Leeds
0 - 0
Brentford
Draw
Sep 2022
Leeds(A)
2 - 5
Brentford
Away
May 2022
Leeds(A)
2 - 1
Brentford
Home
In the last 5 meetings, Leeds won 1, drew 3 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Leeds — unbeaten run (home)4
Leeds — scoring streak (home)3
Brentford — winless run (away)5
Brentford — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Leeds Win (1)48%
Draw (X)25%
Brentford Win (2)27%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
74%
+0.5
63%
42%
+1.5
26%
32%
+2.5
16%
5%
+3.5
11%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
26%
-0.5
37%
58%
-1.5
74%
68%
-2.5
84%
95%
-3.5
89%
100%
-4.5
100%
Leeds vs Brentford — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Leeds — scored (home)1.53
Leeds — conceded (home)1.11
Brentford — scored (away)1.16
Brentford — conceded (away)1.63
Model expected combined goals2.71
Both Teams To Score
Yes54%
No46%
Rate per Team
Leeds — BTTS matches (home)53%
Brentford — BTTS matches (away)47%
Combined (simple average)50%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.543%
Under 10.557%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.20
Per-Team Corners own matches
Leeds (home)
Corners for5.6
Corners against4.2
Brentford (away)
Corners for5.2
Corners against6.1
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Leeds
13
5
16
15
10
Brentford
15
8
12
13
16
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.9
Yellow Cards per Team
Leeds (home)
For1.6
Brentford (away)
For2.2
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.573%
Under 19.527%
Over 22.560%
Under 22.540%
Over 25.546%
Under 25.554%
Expected total shots25.58
Leeds
Shots Over 9.581%
Shots Over 11.568%
Shots Over 13.554%
Expected shots14.66
On Target Over 3.567%
On Target Over 4.550%
On Target Over 5.535%
Expected on target4.78
Brentford
Shots Over 9.558%
Shots Over 11.541%
Shots Over 13.526%
Expected shots10.92
On Target Over 3.553%
On Target Over 4.536%
On Target Over 5.522%
Expected on target3.93
Shots per Game
Leeds — total shots (home)14.3
Brentford — total shots (away)9.3
Shots on Target
Leeds — on target (home)4.4
Brentford — on target (away)3.6
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Leeds
Inside the box8.58
Outside the box4
Brentford
Inside the box8.05
Outside the box2.61
Player Shots Leeds
D. Calvert-Lewin
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target20%
N. Okafor
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target7%
L. Nmecha
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target6%
A. Stach
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target0%
B. Aaronson
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target3%
Player Shots Brentford
Thiago
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target34%
K. Schade
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target14%
D. Ouattara
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target9%
M. Damsgaard
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target6%
K. Lewis-Potter
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target19%
+1.5 On Target3%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Leeds xG (home)1.43
Brentford xG (away)1.59
Average Possession
45.74%
Possession
47.58%
Team Comparison Leeds vs Brentford
78.32%
Pass accuracy
78.55%
395.66
Passes per match
394.92
0.01
Goals prevented
-0.09
10.47
Fouls committed
10.61
2.66
Goalkeeper saves
2.89
1.62
Offsides
1.61
17.39
Tackles per match
14.53
League average xG this season is 1.4 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Leeds vs Brentford prediction analysis
Review Leeds vs Brentford with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Premier League.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Premier League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights