Prediction Analysis: Lens vs Auxerre
Lens vs Auxerre prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Ligue 1
2026-08-22
15:00
Lens
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Home Win
Pick
Lens
Probability
60%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Auxerre
Away
Prediction Summary
1
60%
X
23%
2
17%
+2.5 Goals
50%
BTTS
48%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Lens (Home)
Goals scored / match2.06
Goals conceded / match0.76
Over 2.5 rate41%
BTTS rate41%
Auxerre (Away)
Goals scored / match0.94
Goals conceded / match1.59
Over 2.5 rate6%
BTTS rate47%
Team Form last 5 matches
Lens
WLWDD
Auxerre
WWWLD
Goals Comparison rate per team
88%
+0.5
53%
65%
+1.5
35%
41%
+2.5
6%
6%
+3.5
0%
6%
+4.5
0%
41%
BTTS
47%
Model Insight
The selected market is Home Win with a probability of 60%. Model confidence is Medium.
Lens averages 2.06 goals scored at home, while Auxerre averages 0.94 goals scored away.
Model Strength
60%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
60%
Draw
23%
Away Win
17%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Yes
48%
Head-to-Head last 5
Jan 2026
Lens
1 - 0
Auxerre
Home
Oct 2025
Lens(A)
2 - 1
Auxerre
Home
Apr 2025
Lens
0 - 4
Auxerre
Away
Dec 2024
Lens(A)
2 - 2
Auxerre
Draw
Jun 2023
Lens(A)
3 - 1
Auxerre
Home
In the last 5 meetings, Lens won 3, drew 1 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Lens — unbeaten run (home)0
Lens — scoring streak (home)0
Auxerre — winless run (away)0
Auxerre — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Lens Win (1)60%
Draw (X)23%
Auxerre Win (2)17%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
88%
+0.5
53%
65%
+1.5
35%
41%
+2.5
6%
6%
+3.5
0%
6%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
12%
-0.5
47%
35%
-1.5
65%
59%
-2.5
94%
94%
-3.5
100%
94%
-4.5
100%
Lens vs Auxerre — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Lens — scored (home)2.06
Lens — conceded (home)0.76
Auxerre — scored (away)0.94
Auxerre — conceded (away)1.59
Model expected combined goals2.68
Both Teams To Score
Yes48%
No52%
Rate per Team
Lens — BTTS matches (home)41%
Auxerre — BTTS matches (away)47%
Combined (simple average)44%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.557%
Under 8.543%
Over 9.546%
Under 9.554%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.50
Per-Team Corners own matches
Lens (home)
Corners for6.8
Corners against4.1
Auxerre (away)
Corners for4.1
Corners against5.0
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Lens
6
15
11
9
28
Auxerre
14
9
10
11
6
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.594%
Under 1.56%
Over 2.585%
Under 2.515%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.9
Yellow Cards per Team
Lens (home)
For1.6
Auxerre (away)
For2.3
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.573%
Under 19.527%
Over 22.560%
Under 22.540%
Over 25.546%
Under 25.554%
Expected total shots25.57
Lens
Shots Over 9.583%
Shots Over 11.571%
Shots Over 13.557%
Expected shots15.16
On Target Over 3.574%
On Target Over 4.559%
On Target Over 5.544%
Expected on target5.43
Auxerre
Shots Over 9.554%
Shots Over 11.537%
Shots Over 13.523%
Expected shots10.41
On Target Over 3.546%
On Target Over 4.529%
On Target Over 5.517%
Expected on target3.54
Shots per Game
Lens — total shots (home)18.2
Auxerre — total shots (away)9.9
Shots on Target
Lens — on target (home)6.4
Auxerre — on target (away)3.2
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Lens
Inside the box11.47
Outside the box4.97
Auxerre
Inside the box6.94
Outside the box3.76
Player Shots Lens
O. Édouard
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target69%
+1.5 On Target34%
W. Saïd
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target31%
F. Thauvin
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target21%
M. Udol
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target9%
M. Sangaré
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target10%
Player Shots Auxerre
L. Sinayoko
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target59%
+1.5 On Target28%
D. Namaso
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target13%
S. Mara
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target7%
I. Osman
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target0%
J. Casimir
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target10%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Lens xG (home)1.99
Auxerre xG (away)1.05
Average Possession
51.12%
Possession
43.91%
Team Comparison Lens vs Auxerre
84.24%
Pass accuracy
79.62%
463.53
Passes per match
372.85
0.17
Goals prevented
0.08
12.71
Fouls committed
13.74
2.48
Goalkeeper saves
3.29
2.23
Offsides
1.45
18.74
Tackles per match
18.09
League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Lens vs Auxerre prediction analysis
Review Lens vs Auxerre with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Ligue 1.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Ligue 1
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights