Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Lens vs Le Havre

Lens vs Le Havre prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Ligue 1 2025-03-01 18:00
Lens
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
41%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Le Havre
Away

Prediction Summary

1
42%
X
28%
2
30%
Under 2.5
59%
BTTS No
53%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Lens (Home)

Goals scored / match1.12
Goals conceded / match1.29
Over 2.5 rate18%
BTTS rate24%

Le Havre (Away)

Goals scored / match1.47
Goals conceded / match1.76
Over 2.5 rate12%
BTTS rate65%

Team Form last 5 matches

Lens
WDWLW
Le Havre
WLWDL

Goals Comparison rate per team

59% +0.5 82%
29% +1.5 47%
18% +2.5 12%
6% +3.5 6%
0% +4.5 0%
24% BTTS 65%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 41%. Model confidence is Medium.

Lens averages 1.12 goals scored at home, while Le Havre averages 1.47 goals scored away.

Model Strength
59%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
42%
Draw
28%
Away Win
30%
Over 2.5
41%
BTTS Yes
47%

Head-to-Head last 5

Jan 2026 Lens 1 - 0 Le Havre Home
Aug 2025 Lens(A) 2 - 1 Le Havre Home
Mar 2025 Lens 3 - 4 Le Havre Away
Jan 2025 Lens(A) 2 - 1 Le Havre Home
Apr 2024 Lens 1 - 1 Le Havre Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Lens won 3, drew 1 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Lens — unbeaten run (home)1
Lens — scoring streak (home)1
Le Havre — winless run (away)0
Le Havre — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Lens Win (1)42%
Draw (X)28%
Le Havre Win (2)30%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

59% +0.5 82%
29% +1.5 47%
18% +2.5 12%
6% +3.5 6%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

41% -0.5 18%
71% -1.5 53%
82% -2.5 88%
94% -3.5 94%
100% -4.5 100%

Lens vs Le Havre — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Lens — scored (home)1.12
Lens — conceded (home)1.29
Le Havre — scored (away)1.47
Le Havre — conceded (away)1.76
Model expected combined goals2.32

Both Teams To Score

Yes47%
No53%

Rate per Team

Lens — BTTS matches (home)24%
Le Havre — BTTS matches (away)65%
Combined (simple average)44.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.597%
Under 4.53%
Over 5.594%
Under 5.56%
Over 6.585%
Under 6.515%
Over 7.571%
Under 7.529%
Over 8.565%
Under 8.535%
Over 9.547%
Under 9.553%
Over 10.533%
Under 10.567%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.50

Per-Team Corners own matches

Lens (home)

Corners for6.6
Corners against2.6

Le Havre (away)

Corners for4.1
Corners against5.6

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Lens
13 9 10 3 9
Le Havre
10 9 9 11 7

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.594%
Under 0.56%
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.571%
Under 2.529%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4

Yellow Cards per Team

Lens (home)

For2.5

Le Havre (away)

For1.8

Shots per Game

Lens — total shots (home)16.3
Le Havre — total shots (away)9.9

Shots on Target

Lens — on target (home)5.2
Le Havre — on target (away)3.4

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Lens

Inside the box9.68
Outside the box4.71

Le Havre

Inside the box6.5
Outside the box3.76

Player Shots Lens

F. Sotoca
Shots on Target/Game2.3
+0.5 On Target26%
+1.5 On Target19%
G. Koyalipou
Shots on Target/Game1.9
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target20%
M'Bala Nzola
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target29%
R. Aguilar
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target13%
+1.5 On Target6%
J. Chávez
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target10%

Player Shots Le Havre

Y. Salmier
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target15%
+1.5 On Target8%
I. Soumaré
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target14%
A. Touré
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target14%
Y. Kechta
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target23%
+1.5 On Target6%
Koka
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target6%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Lens xG (home)1.57
Le Havre xG (away)1.25

Average Possession

54.06% Possession 42.97%

Team Comparison Lens vs Le Havre

83.12% Pass accuracy 80.82%
488.06 Passes per match 372.06
0.39 Goals prevented 0.22
14.68 Fouls committed 11.15
3.03 Goalkeeper saves 3.18
2.8 Offsides 1.56
17.94 Tackles per match 18.24

League average xG this season is 1.51 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Lens vs Le Havre prediction analysis

Review Lens vs Le Havre with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Ligue 1.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Ligue 1
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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