What markets are included in the Lens vs Marseille prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Lens vs Marseille prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Lens vs Marseille

Lens vs Marseille prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

Back to Predictions

Ligue 1 2025-10-25 19:05

Lens

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

42%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-0

Marseille

Away

Prediction Summary

45%

27%

Under 2.5

58%

BTTS No

53%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Lens (Home)

Goals scored / match2.06

Goals conceded / match0.76

Over 2.5 rate41%

BTTS rate41%

Marseille (Away)

Goals scored / match1.29

Goals conceded / match1.47

Over 2.5 rate18%

BTTS rate35%

Team Form last 5 matches

Lens

WLWDD

Marseille

WWLDL

Goals Comparison rate per team

88% +0.5 59%

65% +1.5 29%

41% +2.5 18%

6% +3.5 12%

6% +4.5 12%

41% BTTS 35%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 42%. Model confidence is Medium.

Lens averages 2.06 goals scored at home, while Marseille averages 1.29 goals scored away.

Model Strength

58%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

45%

Draw

27%

Away Win

27%

Over 2.5

42%

BTTS Yes

47%

Head-to-Head last 5

Jan 2026 Lens(A) 1 - 3 Marseille Away

Oct 2025 Lens 2 - 1 Marseille Home

Mar 2025 Lens(A) 1 - 0 Marseille Home

Nov 2024 Lens 1 - 3 Marseille Away

Apr 2024 Lens(A) 1 - 2 Marseille Away

In the last 5 meetings, Lens won 2, drew 0 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Lens — unbeaten run (home)0

Lens — scoring streak (home)0

Marseille — winless run (away)0

Marseille — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Lens Win (1)45%

Draw (X)27%

Marseille Win (2)27%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

88% +0.5 59%

65% +1.5 29%

41% +2.5 18%

6% +3.5 12%

6% +4.5 12%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

12% -0.5 41%

35% -1.5 71%

59% -2.5 82%

94% -3.5 88%

94% -4.5 88%

Lens vs Marseille — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Lens — scored (home)2.06

Lens — conceded (home)0.76

Marseille — scored (away)1.29

Marseille — conceded (away)1.47

Model expected combined goals2.38

Both Teams To Score

Yes47%

No53%

Rate per Team

Lens — BTTS matches (home)41%

Marseille — BTTS matches (away)35%

Combined (simple average)38%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.594%

Under 4.56%

Over 5.591%

Under 5.59%

Over 6.582%

Under 6.518%

Over 7.571%

Under 7.529%

Over 8.553%

Under 8.547%

Over 9.544%

Under 9.556%

Over 10.538%

Under 10.562%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.90

Per-Team Corners own matches

Lens (home)

Corners for6.8

Corners against4.1

Marseille (away)

Corners for4.8

Corners against4.1

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Lens

6 15 11 9 28

Marseille

8 8 15 3 15

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.594%

Under 0.56%

Over 1.591%

Under 1.59%

Over 2.579%

Under 2.521%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4

Yellow Cards per Team

Lens (home)

For1.6

Marseille (away)

For2.7

Shots per Game

Lens — total shots (home)18.2

Marseille — total shots (away)14.4

Shots on Target

Lens — on target (home)6.4

Marseille — on target (away)5.1

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Lens

Inside the box11.47

Outside the box4.97

Marseille

Inside the box9.62

Outside the box5.47

Player Shots Lens

O. Édouard

Shots on Target/Game1.1

+0.5 On Target69%

+1.5 On Target34%

W. Saïd

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target55%

+1.5 On Target31%

F. Thauvin

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target55%

+1.5 On Target21%

M. Udol

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target9%

M. Sangaré

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target10%

Player Shots Marseille

M. Greenwood

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target81%

+1.5 On Target41%

P. Aubameyang

Shots on Target/Game1.1

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target30%

A. Gouiri

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target55%

+1.5 On Target14%

Igor Paixão

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target60%

+1.5 On Target13%

H. Traorè

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target46%

+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Lens xG (home)1.99

Marseille xG (away)1.81

Average Possession

51.12% Possession 56.94%

Team Comparison Lens vs Marseille

84.24% Pass accuracy 87.15%

463.53 Passes per match 540.71

0.17 Goals prevented -0.27

12.71 Fouls committed 12.71

2.48 Goalkeeper saves 2.62

2.23 Offsides 1.24

18.74 Tackles per match 14.91

League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Lens vs Marseille prediction analysis

Review Lens vs Marseille with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Ligue 1.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Ligue 1

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights