Prediction Analysis: Leon vs CF Pachuca
Leon vs CF Pachuca prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Liga MX
2026-08-02
01:00
Leon
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
58%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
CF Pachuca
Away
Prediction Summary
1
35%
X
25%
2
40%
Over 2.5
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Leon (Home)
Goals scored / match1.56
Goals conceded / match1.61
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate72%
CF Pachuca (Away)
Goals scored / match1.33
Goals conceded / match1.19
Over 2.5 rate19%
BTTS rate52%
Team Form last 5 matches
Leon
LLLLW
CF Pachuca
WLWWW
Goals Comparison rate per team
89%
+0.5
71%
56%
+1.5
43%
11%
+2.5
19%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
72%
BTTS
52%
Model Insight
The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 58%. Model confidence is Medium.
Leon averages 1.56 goals scored at home, while CF Pachuca averages 1.33 goals scored away.
Model Strength
58%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
35%
Draw
25%
Away Win
40%
Over 2.5
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
Head-to-Head last 5
Jan 2026
Leon(A)
1 - 2
CF Pachuca
Away
Aug 2025
Leon
1 - 1
CF Pachuca
Draw
Feb 2025
Leon(A)
2 - 1
CF Pachuca
Home
Jul 2024
Leon
0 - 0
CF Pachuca
Draw
Feb 2024
Leon(A)
2 - 3
CF Pachuca
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Leon won 1, drew 2 and lost 2.
Current Streaks
Leon — unbeaten run (home)0
Leon — scoring streak (home)4
CF Pachuca — winless run (away)0
CF Pachuca — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Leon Win (1)35%
Draw (X)25%
CF Pachuca Win (2)40%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
89%
+0.5
71%
56%
+1.5
43%
11%
+2.5
19%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
11%
-0.5
29%
44%
-1.5
57%
89%
-2.5
81%
100%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Leon vs CF Pachuca — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Leon — scored (home)1.56
Leon — conceded (home)1.61
CF Pachuca — scored (away)1.33
CF Pachuca — conceded (away)1.19
Model expected combined goals2.85
Both Teams To Score
Yes58%
No42%
Rate per Team
Leon — BTTS matches (home)72%
CF Pachuca — BTTS matches (away)52%
Combined (simple average)62%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.559%
Under 8.541%
Over 9.548%
Under 9.552%
Over 10.538%
Under 10.562%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.70
Per-Team Corners own matches
Leon (home)
Corners for5.4
Corners against4.8
CF Pachuca (away)
Corners for3.9
Corners against4.8
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Leon
11
12
9
8
13
CF Pachuca
14
7
10
6
13
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.585%
Under 2.515%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.5
Yellow Cards per Team
Leon (home)
For2.3
CF Pachuca (away)
For2.4
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.578%
Under 19.522%
Over 22.565%
Under 22.535%
Over 25.552%
Under 25.548%
Expected total shots26.88
Leon
Shots Over 9.578%
Shots Over 11.564%
Shots Over 13.549%
Expected shots13.97
On Target Over 3.567%
On Target Over 4.550%
On Target Over 5.535%
Expected on target4.81
CF Pachuca
Shots Over 9.573%
Shots Over 11.557%
Shots Over 13.542%
Expected shots12.91
On Target Over 3.562%
On Target Over 4.545%
On Target Over 5.530%
Expected on target4.45
Shots per Game
Leon — total shots (home)14.3
CF Pachuca — total shots (away)13.0
Shots on Target
Leon — on target (home)4.8
CF Pachuca — on target (away)4.2
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Leon
Inside the box7.53
Outside the box5.82
CF Pachuca
Inside the box7.15
Outside the box6.8
Player Shots Leon
J. Rodríguez
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target29%
D. Cambindo
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target72%
+1.5 On Target39%
J. Alvarado
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target17%
R. Funes Mori
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target23%
+1.5 On Target5%
I. Díaz
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target25%
Player Shots CF Pachuca
A. Domínguez
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target16%
+1.5 On Target10%
S. Rondón
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target14%
J. Cádiz
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target15%
E. Valencia
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target27%
I. Hernández
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target17%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Leon xG (home)1.15
CF Pachuca xG (away)1.09
Average Possession
52.44%
Possession
48.75%
Team Comparison Leon vs CF Pachuca
81.22%
Pass accuracy
82.83%
429.79
Passes per match
400.3
0.05
Goals prevented
-0.23
13.44
Fouls committed
13.45
3.59
Goalkeeper saves
2.68
1.74
Offsides
1.58
15.37
Tackles per match
16
League average xG this season is 1.32 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Leon vs CF Pachuca prediction analysis
Review Leon vs CF Pachuca with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Liga MX.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Liga MX
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights