What markets are included in the Lille vs Marseille prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Lille vs Marseille prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Lille vs Marseille

Lille vs Marseille prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Ligue 1 2025-12-05 20:00

Lille

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

53%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-1

Marseille

Away

Prediction Summary

42%

25%

33%

Over 2.5

53%

BTTS Yes

56%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Lille (Home)

Goals scored / match1.41

Goals conceded / match1

Over 2.5 rate18%

BTTS rate47%

Marseille (Away)

Goals scored / match1.29

Goals conceded / match1.47

Over 2.5 rate18%

BTTS rate35%

Team Form last 5 matches

Lille

LWDWD

Marseille

WWLDL

Goals Comparison rate per team

76% +0.5 59%

24% +1.5 29%

18% +2.5 18%

12% +3.5 12%

6% +4.5 12%

47% BTTS 35%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 53%. Model confidence is Medium.

Lille averages 1.41 goals scored at home, while Marseille averages 1.29 goals scored away.

Model Strength

56%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

42%

Draw

25%

Away Win

33%

Over 2.5

53%

BTTS Yes

56%

Head-to-Head last 5

Mar 2026 Lille(A) 2 - 1 Marseille Home

Dec 2025 Lille 1 - 0 Marseille Home

May 2025 Lille 1 - 1 Marseille Draw

Jan 2025 Lille(A) 1 - 1 Marseille Draw

Dec 2024 Lille(A) 1 - 1 Marseille Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Lille won 2, drew 3 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Lille — unbeaten run (home)0

Lille — scoring streak (home)0

Marseille — winless run (away)0

Marseille — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Lille Win (1)42%

Draw (X)25%

Marseille Win (2)33%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

76% +0.5 59%

24% +1.5 29%

18% +2.5 18%

12% +3.5 12%

6% +4.5 12%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

24% -0.5 41%

76% -1.5 71%

82% -2.5 82%

88% -3.5 88%

94% -4.5 88%

Lille vs Marseille — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Lille — scored (home)1.41

Lille — conceded (home)1

Marseille — scored (away)1.29

Marseille — conceded (away)1.47

Model expected combined goals2.79

Both Teams To Score

Yes56%

No44%

Rate per Team

Lille — BTTS matches (home)47%

Marseille — BTTS matches (away)35%

Combined (simple average)41%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.597%

Under 4.53%

Over 5.591%

Under 5.59%

Over 6.576%

Under 6.524%

Over 7.565%

Under 7.535%

Over 8.544%

Under 8.556%

Over 9.538%

Under 9.562%

Over 10.538%

Under 10.562%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.40

Per-Team Corners own matches

Lille (home)

Corners for6.4

Corners against3.6

Marseille (away)

Corners for4.8

Corners against4.1

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Lille

8 10 19 7 6

Marseille

8 8 15 3 15

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.597%

Under 0.53%

Over 1.591%

Under 1.59%

Over 2.577%

Under 2.523%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4

Yellow Cards per Team

Lille (home)

For2.0

Marseille (away)

For2.7

Shots per Game

Lille — total shots (home)14.8

Marseille — total shots (away)14.4

Shots on Target

Lille — on target (home)4.8

Marseille — on target (away)5.1

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Lille

Inside the box9.56

Outside the box4.06

Marseille

Inside the box9.62

Outside the box5.47

Player Shots Lille

M. Fernandez-Pardo

Shots on Target/Game1

+0.5 On Target62%

+1.5 On Target31%

H. Igamane

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target46%

+1.5 On Target15%

O. Giroud

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target37%

+1.5 On Target10%

H. Haraldsson

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target13%

S. Diaoune

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Marseille

M. Greenwood

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target81%

+1.5 On Target41%

P. Aubameyang

Shots on Target/Game1.1

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target30%

A. Gouiri

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target55%

+1.5 On Target14%

Igor Paixão

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target60%

+1.5 On Target13%

H. Traorè

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target46%

+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Lille xG (home)1.63

Marseille xG (away)1.81

Average Possession

55.85% Possession 56.94%

Team Comparison Lille vs Marseille

85.09% Pass accuracy 87.15%

496.88 Passes per match 540.71

0.2 Goals prevented -0.27

10.88 Fouls committed 12.71

2.24 Goalkeeper saves 2.62

1.47 Offsides 1.24

15.15 Tackles per match 14.91

League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Lille vs Marseille prediction analysis

Review Lille vs Marseille with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Ligue 1.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Ligue 1

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights