What markets are included in the Lille vs Paris Saint Germain prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Lille vs Paris Saint Germain prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Lille vs Paris Saint Germain

Lille vs Paris Saint Germain prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Ligue 1 2026-08-30 18:45

Lille

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

50%

Confidence

Low

Score

1-1

Paris Saint Germain

Away

Prediction Summary

31%

26%

43%

+2.5 Goals

50%

BTTS

54%

Confidence

Low

Market Evidence

Lille (Home)

Goals scored / match1.41

Goals conceded / match1

Over 2.5 rate18%

BTTS rate47%

Paris Saint Germain (Away)

Goals scored / match1.94

Goals conceded / match1

Over 2.5 rate35%

BTTS rate47%

Team Form last 5 matches

Lille

LWDWD

Paris Saint Germain

LWWDW

Goals Comparison rate per team

76% +0.5 88%

24% +1.5 47%

18% +2.5 35%

12% +3.5 12%

6% +4.5 6%

47% BTTS 47%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 50%. Model confidence is Low.

Lille averages 1.41 goals scored at home, while Paris Saint Germain averages 1.94 goals scored away.

Model Strength

54%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

31%

Draw

26%

Away Win

43%

Over 2.5

50%

BTTS Yes

54%

Head-to-Head last 5

Jan 2026 Lille(A) 0 - 3 Paris Saint Germain Away

Oct 2025 Lille 1 - 1 Paris Saint Germain Draw

Mar 2025 Lille(A) 1 - 4 Paris Saint Germain Away

Sep 2024 Lille 1 - 3 Paris Saint Germain Away

Feb 2024 Lille(A) 1 - 3 Paris Saint Germain Away

In the last 5 meetings, Lille won 0, drew 1 and lost 4.

Current Streaks

Lille — unbeaten run (home)0

Lille — scoring streak (home)0

Paris Saint Germain — winless run (away)1

Paris Saint Germain — clean sheets (away, last 5)4 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Lille Win (1)31%

Draw (X)26%

Paris Saint Germain Win (2)43%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

76% +0.5 88%

24% +1.5 47%

18% +2.5 35%

12% +3.5 12%

6% +4.5 6%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

24% -0.5 12%

76% -1.5 53%

82% -2.5 65%

88% -3.5 88%

94% -4.5 94%

Lille vs Paris Saint Germain — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Lille — scored (home)1.41

Lille — conceded (home)1

Paris Saint Germain — scored (away)1.94

Paris Saint Germain — conceded (away)1

Model expected combined goals2.68

Both Teams To Score

Yes54%

No46%

Rate per Team

Lille — BTTS matches (home)47%

Paris Saint Germain — BTTS matches (away)47%

Combined (simple average)47%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.557%

Under 8.543%

Over 9.546%

Under 9.554%

Over 10.537%

Under 10.563%

Expected total corners (model prediction)9.50

Per-Team Corners own matches

Lille (home)

Corners for6.4

Corners against3.6

Paris Saint Germain (away)

Corners for5.2

Corners against3.6

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Lille

8 10 19 7 6

Paris Saint Germain

9 14 15 9 6

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.597%

Under 0.53%

Over 1.580%

Under 1.520%

Over 2.550%

Under 2.550%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.1

Yellow Cards per Team

Lille (home)

For2.0

Paris Saint Germain (away)

For0.9

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.570%

Under 19.530%

Over 22.556%

Under 22.544%

Over 25.542%

Under 25.558%

Expected total shots24.59

Lille

Shots Over 9.572%

Shots Over 11.557%

Shots Over 13.541%

Expected shots12.89

On Target Over 3.563%

On Target Over 4.547%

On Target Over 5.532%

Expected on target4.58

Paris Saint Germain

Shots Over 9.564%

Shots Over 11.547%

Shots Over 13.532%

Expected shots11.70

On Target Over 3.564%

On Target Over 4.548%

On Target Over 5.533%

Expected on target4.68

Shots per Game

Lille — total shots (home)14.8

Paris Saint Germain — total shots (away)15.2

Shots on Target

Lille — on target (home)4.8

Paris Saint Germain — on target (away)6.4

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Lille

Inside the box9.56

Outside the box4.06

Paris Saint Germain

Inside the box11.18

Outside the box6.53

Player Shots Lille

M. Fernandez-Pardo

Shots on Target/Game1

+0.5 On Target62%

+1.5 On Target31%

H. Igamane

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target46%

+1.5 On Target15%

O. Giroud

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target37%

+1.5 On Target10%

H. Haraldsson

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target13%

S. Diaoune

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Paris Saint Germain

B. Barcola

Shots on Target/Game1.1

+0.5 On Target72%

+1.5 On Target31%

K. Kvaratskhelia

Shots on Target/Game1

+0.5 On Target64%

+1.5 On Target29%

Gonçalo Ramos

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target23%

D. Doué

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target57%

+1.5 On Target22%

O. Dembélé

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target59%

+1.5 On Target23%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Lille xG (home)1.63

Paris Saint Germain xG (away)2.12

Average Possession

55.85% Possession 68.79%

Team Comparison Lille vs Paris Saint Germain

85.09% Pass accuracy 91.06%

496.88 Passes per match 723.03

0.2 Goals prevented -0.17

10.88 Fouls committed 9.18

2.24 Goalkeeper saves 2.26

1.47 Offsides 1.4

15.15 Tackles per match 14.88

League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Lille vs Paris Saint Germain prediction analysis

Review Lille vs Paris Saint Germain with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Ligue 1.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Ligue 1

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights