Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid

Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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UEFA Champions League 2025-09-17 19:00
Liverpool
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
73%
Confidence
High
Score
2-1
Atletico Madrid
Away

Prediction Summary

1
56%
X
20%
2
24%
Over 2.5
73%
BTTS Yes
70%
Confidence
High

Market Evidence

Liverpool (Home)

Goals scored / match2.5
Goals conceded / match1.33
Over 2.5 rate50%
BTTS rate33%

Atletico Madrid (Away)

Goals scored / match1.63
Goals conceded / match2.13
Over 2.5 rate25%
BTTS rate63%

Team Form last 5 matches

Liverpool
LLWLW
Atletico Madrid
LDLWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

83% +0.5 75%
50% +1.5 63%
50% +2.5 25%
33% +3.5 0%
17% +4.5 0%
33% BTTS 63%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 73%. Model confidence is High.

Liverpool averages 2.5 goals scored at home, while Atletico Madrid averages 1.63 goals scored away.

Model Strength
73%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
56%
Draw
20%
Away Win
24%
Over 2.5
73%
BTTS Yes
70%

Head-to-Head last 5

Sep 2025 Liverpool 3 - 2 Atletico Madrid Home
Nov 2021 Liverpool 2 - 0 Atletico Madrid Home
Oct 2021 Liverpool(A) 3 - 2 Atletico Madrid Home
Mar 2020 Liverpool 2 - 3 Atletico Madrid Away
Feb 2020 Liverpool(A) 0 - 1 Atletico Madrid Away

In the last 5 meetings, Liverpool won 3, drew 0 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Liverpool — unbeaten run (home)0
Liverpool — scoring streak (home)0
Atletico Madrid — winless run (away)1
Atletico Madrid — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Liverpool Win (1)56%
Draw (X)20%
Atletico Madrid Win (2)24%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

83% +0.5 75%
50% +1.5 63%
50% +2.5 25%
33% +3.5 0%
17% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

17% -0.5 25%
50% -1.5 37%
50% -2.5 75%
67% -3.5 100%
83% -4.5 100%

Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Liverpool — scored (home)2.5
Liverpool — conceded (home)1.33
Atletico Madrid — scored (away)1.63
Atletico Madrid — conceded (away)2.13
Model expected combined goals3.79

Both Teams To Score

Yes70%
No30%

Rate per Team

Liverpool — BTTS matches (home)33%
Atletico Madrid — BTTS matches (away)63%
Combined (simple average)48%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.5100%
Under 5.50%
Over 6.592%
Under 6.58%
Over 7.579%
Under 7.521%
Over 8.565%
Under 8.535%
Over 9.565%
Under 9.535%
Over 10.550%
Under 10.550%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.90

Per-Team Corners own matches

Liverpool (home)

Corners for8.3
Corners against2.8

Atletico Madrid (away)

Corners for4.8
Corners against5.8

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Liverpool
15 11 8 4 10
Atletico Madrid
14 8 6 7 7

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.592%
Under 0.58%
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.567%
Under 2.533%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Liverpool (home)

For1.0

Atletico Madrid (away)

For2.6

Shots per Game

Liverpool — total shots (home)25.8
Atletico Madrid — total shots (away)12.0

Shots on Target

Liverpool — on target (home)9.7
Atletico Madrid — on target (away)4.3

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Liverpool

Inside the box13.33
Outside the box5.83

Atletico Madrid

Inside the box9.63
Outside the box4.63

Player Shots Liverpool

Mohamed Salah
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target30%
D. Szoboszlai
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target25%
H. Ekitike
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target25%
A. Isak
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target14%
C. Gakpo
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target9%

Player Shots Atletico Madrid

J. Álvarez
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target60%
A. Sørloth
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target21%
A. Lookman
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target63%
+1.5 On Target13%
A. Griezmann
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target20%
Marcos Llorente
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target7%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Liverpool xG (home)2.48
Atletico Madrid xG (away)1.8

Average Possession

52.75% Possession 49.31%

Team Comparison Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid

84.42% Pass accuracy 84.31%
483 Passes per match 475.81
0.17 Goals prevented 0
11.75 Fouls committed 10.94
2.25 Goalkeeper saves 3.75
2.08 Offsides 1.38
14.17 Tackles per match 18.63

League average xG this season is 1.65 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid prediction analysis

Review Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from UEFA Champions League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance UEFA Champions League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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