Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Lorient vs Estac Troyes

Lorient vs Estac Troyes prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

Back to Predictions
Ligue 1 2026-08-29 15:00
Lorient
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
65%
Confidence
Medium
Score
2-1
Estac Troyes
Away

Prediction Summary

1
54%
X
21%
2
25%
+2.5 Goals
65%
BTTS
64%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Lorient (Home)

Goals scored / match1.82
Goals conceded / match1.47
Over 2.5 rate24%
BTTS rate71%

Estac Troyes (Away)

Goals scored / match0
Goals conceded / match0
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate0%

Team Form last 5 matches

Lorient
LWDLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

94% +0.5 0%
59% +1.5 0%
24% +2.5 0%
6% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
71% BTTS 0%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 65%. Model confidence is Medium.

Lorient averages 1.82 goals scored at home, while Estac Troyes averages 0 goals scored away.

Model Strength
65%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
54%
Draw
21%
Away Win
25%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Yes
64%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2025 Lorient(A) 1 - 0 Estac Troyes Home
Dec 2024 Lorient 2 - 0 Estac Troyes Home
Mar 2023 Lorient 2 - 0 Estac Troyes Home
Oct 2022 Lorient(A) 2 - 2 Estac Troyes Draw
May 2022 Lorient 1 - 1 Estac Troyes Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Lorient won 3, drew 2 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Lorient — unbeaten run (home)0
Lorient — scoring streak (home)0

1X2 Probability model

Lorient Win (1)54%
Draw (X)21%
Estac Troyes Win (2)25%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

94% +0.5 0%
59% +1.5 0%
24% +2.5 0%
6% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

6% -0.5 100%
41% -1.5 100%
76% -2.5 100%
94% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Lorient vs Estac Troyes — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Lorient — scored (home)1.82
Lorient — conceded (home)1.47
Estac Troyes — scored (away)0
Estac Troyes — conceded (away)0
Model expected combined goals3.34

Both Teams To Score

Yes64%
No36%

Rate per Team

Lorient — BTTS matches (home)71%
Estac Troyes — BTTS matches (away)0%
Combined (simple average)35.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.557%
Under 8.543%
Over 9.546%
Under 9.554%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.50

Per-Team Corners own matches

Lorient (home)

Corners for3.2
Corners against5.3

Estac Troyes (away)

Corners for—
Corners against—

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Lorient
8 16 14 11 6

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.547%
Under 0.553%
Over 1.547%
Under 1.553%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.1

Yellow Cards per Team

Lorient (home)

For1.8

Estac Troyes (away)

For—

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.569%
Under 19.531%
Over 22.555%
Under 22.545%
Over 25.541%
Under 25.559%
Expected total shots24.41

Lorient

Shots Over 9.575%
Shots Over 11.560%
Shots Over 13.545%
Expected shots13.32
On Target Over 3.566%
On Target Over 4.550%
On Target Over 5.536%
Expected on target4.82

Estac Troyes

Shots Over 9.560%
Shots Over 11.542%
Shots Over 13.528%
Expected shots11.08
On Target Over 3.555%
On Target Over 4.538%
On Target Over 5.524%
Expected on target4.05

Shots per Game

Lorient — total shots (home)11.9
Estac Troyes — total shots (away)—

Shots on Target

Lorient — on target (home)4.4
Estac Troyes — on target (away)—

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Lorient

Inside the box7.12
Outside the box4.21

Estac Troyes

Inside the box-
Outside the box-

Player Shots Lorient

B. Dieng
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target73%
+1.5 On Target32%
P. Pagis
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target11%
J. Makengo
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target6%
A. Tosin
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target11%
M. Bamba
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target22%
+1.5 On Target6%

Player Shots Estac Troyes

Not enough dataNot enough player match statistics for this squad.

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Lorient xG (home)1.34
Estac Troyes xG (away)-

Average Possession

45.35% Possession -%

Team Comparison Lorient vs Estac Troyes

83.94% Pass accuracy 0%
427.03 Passes per match -
-0.3 Goals prevented -
9.59 Fouls committed -
2.47 Goalkeeper saves -
1.72 Offsides -
13.68 Tackles per match -

League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Lorient vs Estac Troyes prediction analysis

Review Lorient vs Estac Troyes with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Ligue 1.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Ligue 1
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
Scroll to Top