Prediction Analysis: Los Angeles FC vs Sporting Kansas City
Los Angeles FC vs Sporting Kansas City prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Major League Soccer
2026-07-26
02:30
Los Angeles FC
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Home Win
Pick
Los Angeles FC
Probability
62%
Confidence
Medium
Score
2-1
Sporting Kansas City
Away
Prediction Summary
1
62%
X
20%
2
18%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Yes
56%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Los Angeles FC (Home)
Goals scored / match1.89
Goals conceded / match0.79
Over 2.5 rate32%
BTTS rate42%
Sporting Kansas City (Away)
Goals scored / match1.28
Goals conceded / match2.28
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate72%
Team Form last 5 matches
Los Angeles FC
WWDWW
Sporting Kansas City
WLDLL
Goals Comparison rate per team
84%
+0.5
72%
63%
+1.5
33%
32%
+2.5
11%
11%
+3.5
6%
0%
+4.5
6%
42%
BTTS
72%
Model Insight
The selected market is Home Win with a probability of 62%. Model confidence is Medium.
Los Angeles FC averages 1.89 goals scored at home, while Sporting Kansas City averages 1.28 goals scored away.
Model Strength
62%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
62%
Draw
20%
Away Win
18%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Yes
56%
Head-to-Head last 5
Jun 2025
Los Angeles FC
3 - 1
Sporting Kansas City
Home
Mar 2025
Los Angeles FC(A)
2 - 0
Sporting Kansas City
Home
Oct 2024
Los Angeles FC(A)
3 - 0
Sporting Kansas City
Home
Sep 2024
Los Angeles FC
3 - 1
Sporting Kansas City
Home
Mar 2024
Los Angeles FC
0 - 0
Sporting Kansas City
Draw
In the last 5 meetings, Los Angeles FC won 4, drew 1 and lost 0.
Current Streaks
Los Angeles FC — unbeaten run (home)5
Los Angeles FC — scoring streak (home)6
Sporting Kansas City — winless run (away)7
Sporting Kansas City — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Los Angeles FC Win (1)62%
Draw (X)20%
Sporting Kansas City Win (2)18%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
84%
+0.5
72%
63%
+1.5
33%
32%
+2.5
11%
11%
+3.5
6%
0%
+4.5
6%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
16%
-0.5
28%
37%
-1.5
67%
68%
-2.5
89%
89%
-3.5
94%
100%
-4.5
94%
Los Angeles FC vs Sporting Kansas City — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Los Angeles FC — scored (home)1.89
Los Angeles FC — conceded (home)0.79
Sporting Kansas City — scored (away)1.28
Sporting Kansas City — conceded (away)2.28
Model expected combined goals3.12
Both Teams To Score
Yes56%
No44%
Rate per Team
Los Angeles FC — BTTS matches (home)42%
Sporting Kansas City — BTTS matches (away)72%
Combined (simple average)57%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.560%
Under 8.540%
Over 9.549%
Under 9.551%
Over 10.539%
Under 10.561%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.70
Per-Team Corners own matches
Los Angeles FC (home)
Corners for5.4
Corners against3.5
Sporting Kansas City (away)
Corners for3.4
Corners against5.9
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Los Angeles FC
9
4
20
9
19
Sporting Kansas City
16
6
12
11
6
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.592%
Under 0.58%
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.2
Yellow Cards per Team
Los Angeles FC (home)
For1.1
Sporting Kansas City (away)
For2.1
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.580%
Under 19.520%
Over 22.566%
Under 22.534%
Over 25.552%
Under 25.548%
Expected total shots26.56
Los Angeles FC
Shots Over 9.587%
Shots Over 11.575%
Shots Over 13.560%
Expected shots15.32
On Target Over 3.579%
On Target Over 4.565%
On Target Over 5.549%
Expected on target5.71
Sporting Kansas City
Shots Over 9.563%
Shots Over 11.544%
Shots Over 13.528%
Expected shots11.24
On Target Over 3.549%
On Target Over 4.532%
On Target Over 5.518%
Expected on target3.69
Shots per Game
Los Angeles FC — total shots (home)15.3
Sporting Kansas City — total shots (away)10.3
Shots on Target
Los Angeles FC — on target (home)5.9
Sporting Kansas City — on target (away)3.5
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Los Angeles FC
Inside the box9.08
Outside the box5.27
Sporting Kansas City
Inside the box7.91
Outside the box3.76
Player Shots Los Angeles FC
D. Bouanga
Shots on Target/Game2.7
+0.5 On Target83%
+1.5 On Target71%
Son Heung-Min
Shots on Target/Game2.2
+0.5 On Target93%
+1.5 On Target64%
J. Dilrosun
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target33%
J. Ebobisse
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target13%
D. Martínez
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target13%
Player Shots Sporting Kansas City
D. Joveljić
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target36%
S. Afrifa
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target10%
+1.5 On Target10%
D. Sallói
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target21%
E. Thommy
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target4%
Z. Bassong
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target12%
+1.5 On Target4%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Los Angeles FC xG (home)1.86
Sporting Kansas City xG (away)1.27
Average Possession
52%
Possession
47.97%
Team Comparison Los Angeles FC vs Sporting Kansas City
86.86%
Pass accuracy
83.4%
535.78
Passes per match
451.21
-0.09
Goals prevented
-0.11
12.32
Fouls committed
11.91
2.24
Goalkeeper saves
3.53
1.65
Offsides
1.38
15.61
Tackles per match
14.2
League average xG this season is 1.48 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Los Angeles FC vs Sporting Kansas City prediction analysis
Review Los Angeles FC vs Sporting Kansas City with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Major League Soccer.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Major League Soccer
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights