Prediction Analysis: Lyon vs Auxerre
Lyon vs Auxerre prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Ligue 1
2026-09-05
15:00
Lyon
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Home Win
Pick
Lyon
Probability
53%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-0
Auxerre
Away
Prediction Summary
1
53%
X
24%
2
23%
+2.5 Goals
50%
BTTS
51%
Confidence
Low
Market Evidence
Lyon (Home)
Goals scored / match1.76
Goals conceded / match1.06
Over 2.5 rate24%
BTTS rate47%
Auxerre (Away)
Goals scored / match0.94
Goals conceded / match1.59
Over 2.5 rate6%
BTTS rate47%
Team Form last 5 matches
Lyon
LLWWW
Auxerre
WWWLD
Goals Comparison rate per team
94%
+0.5
53%
53%
+1.5
35%
24%
+2.5
6%
6%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
47%
BTTS
47%
Model Insight
The selected market is Home Win with a probability of 53%. Model confidence is Low.
Lyon averages 1.76 goals scored at home, while Auxerre averages 0.94 goals scored away.
Model Strength
53%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
53%
Draw
24%
Away Win
23%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
Head-to-Head last 5
Apr 2026
Lyon
3 - 2
Auxerre
Home
Nov 2025
Lyon(A)
0 - 0
Auxerre
Draw
Apr 2025
Lyon(A)
3 - 1
Auxerre
Home
Oct 2024
Lyon
2 - 2
Auxerre
Draw
Feb 2023
Lyon(A)
1 - 2
Auxerre
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Lyon won 2, drew 2 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Lyon — unbeaten run (home)0
Lyon — scoring streak (home)0
Auxerre — winless run (away)0
Auxerre — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Lyon Win (1)53%
Draw (X)24%
Auxerre Win (2)23%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
94%
+0.5
53%
53%
+1.5
35%
24%
+2.5
6%
6%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
6%
-0.5
47%
47%
-1.5
65%
76%
-2.5
94%
94%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Lyon vs Auxerre — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Lyon — scored (home)1.76
Lyon — conceded (home)1.06
Auxerre — scored (away)0.94
Auxerre — conceded (away)1.59
Model expected combined goals2.68
Both Teams To Score
Yes51%
No49%
Rate per Team
Lyon — BTTS matches (home)47%
Auxerre — BTTS matches (away)47%
Combined (simple average)47%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.557%
Under 8.543%
Over 9.546%
Under 9.554%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.50
Per-Team Corners own matches
Lyon (home)
Corners for6.5
Corners against4.1
Auxerre (away)
Corners for4.1
Corners against5.0
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Lyon
18
9
12
15
28
Auxerre
14
9
10
11
6
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.588%
Under 2.512%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4
Yellow Cards per Team
Lyon (home)
For1.6
Auxerre (away)
For2.3
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.571%
Under 19.529%
Over 22.557%
Under 22.543%
Over 25.544%
Under 25.556%
Expected total shots24.99
Lyon
Shots Over 9.578%
Shots Over 11.564%
Shots Over 13.550%
Expected shots14.00
On Target Over 3.571%
On Target Over 4.556%
On Target Over 5.541%
Expected on target5.18
Auxerre
Shots Over 9.559%
Shots Over 11.542%
Shots Over 13.527%
Expected shots10.98
On Target Over 3.553%
On Target Over 4.536%
On Target Over 5.523%
Expected on target3.94
Shots per Game
Lyon — total shots (home)13.5
Auxerre — total shots (away)9.9
Shots on Target
Lyon — on target (home)4.8
Auxerre — on target (away)3.2
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Lyon
Inside the box8.32
Outside the box3.94
Auxerre
Inside the box6.94
Outside the box3.76
Player Shots Lyon
Endrick
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target88%
+1.5 On Target44%
C. Tolisso
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target77%
+1.5 On Target10%
M. Fofana
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target17%
P. Šulc
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target19%
M. Satriano
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target18%
Player Shots Auxerre
L. Sinayoko
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target59%
+1.5 On Target28%
D. Namaso
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target13%
S. Mara
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target7%
I. Osman
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target0%
J. Casimir
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target10%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Lyon xG (home)1.57
Auxerre xG (away)1.05
Average Possession
54.62%
Possession
43.91%
Team Comparison Lyon vs Auxerre
84.71%
Pass accuracy
79.62%
466.88
Passes per match
372.85
0.12
Goals prevented
0.08
13
Fouls committed
13.74
2.76
Goalkeeper saves
3.29
1.4
Offsides
1.45
14.59
Tackles per match
18.09
League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Lyon vs Auxerre prediction analysis
Review Lyon vs Auxerre with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Ligue 1.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Ligue 1
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights