Prediction Analysis: Lyon vs Le Havre
Lyon vs Le Havre prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Ligue 1
2026-08-29
15:00
Lyon
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Home Win
Pick
Lyon
Probability
55%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Le Havre
Away
Prediction Summary
1
55%
X
25%
2
20%
+2.5 Goals
46%
BTTS
47%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Lyon (Home)
Goals scored / match1.76
Goals conceded / match1.06
Over 2.5 rate24%
BTTS rate47%
Le Havre (Away)
Goals scored / match0.71
Goals conceded / match1.53
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate41%
Team Form last 5 matches
Lyon
LLWWW
Le Havre
WLDDD
Goals Comparison rate per team
94%
+0.5
53%
53%
+1.5
18%
24%
+2.5
0%
6%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
47%
BTTS
41%
Model Insight
The selected market is Home Win with a probability of 55%. Model confidence is Medium.
Lyon averages 1.76 goals scored at home, while Le Havre averages 0.71 goals scored away.
Model Strength
55%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
55%
Draw
25%
Away Win
20%
Over 2.5
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
Head-to-Head last 5
Mar 2026
Lyon(A)
0 - 0
Le Havre
Draw
Dec 2025
Lyon
1 - 0
Le Havre
Home
Mar 2025
Lyon
4 - 2
Le Havre
Home
Oct 2024
Lyon(A)
4 - 0
Le Havre
Home
Jan 2024
Lyon(A)
1 - 3
Le Havre
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Lyon won 3, drew 1 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Lyon — unbeaten run (home)0
Lyon — scoring streak (home)0
Le Havre — winless run (away)0
Le Havre — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Lyon Win (1)55%
Draw (X)25%
Le Havre Win (2)20%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
94%
+0.5
53%
53%
+1.5
18%
24%
+2.5
0%
6%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
6%
-0.5
47%
47%
-1.5
82%
76%
-2.5
100%
94%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Lyon vs Le Havre — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Lyon — scored (home)1.76
Lyon — conceded (home)1.06
Le Havre — scored (away)0.71
Le Havre — conceded (away)1.53
Model expected combined goals2.53
Both Teams To Score
Yes47%
No53%
Rate per Team
Lyon — BTTS matches (home)47%
Le Havre — BTTS matches (away)41%
Combined (simple average)44%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.557%
Under 8.543%
Over 9.546%
Under 9.554%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.50
Per-Team Corners own matches
Lyon (home)
Corners for6.5
Corners against4.1
Le Havre (away)
Corners for3.7
Corners against6.2
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Lyon
18
9
12
15
28
Le Havre
7
10
19
3
6
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.594%
Under 1.56%
Over 2.582%
Under 2.518%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.9
Yellow Cards per Team
Lyon (home)
For1.6
Le Havre (away)
For2.1
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.572%
Under 19.528%
Over 22.558%
Under 22.542%
Over 25.545%
Under 25.555%
Expected total shots25.17
Lyon
Shots Over 9.580%
Shots Over 11.566%
Shots Over 13.551%
Expected shots14.28
On Target Over 3.569%
On Target Over 4.554%
On Target Over 5.539%
Expected on target5.07
Le Havre
Shots Over 9.558%
Shots Over 11.541%
Shots Over 13.526%
Expected shots10.90
On Target Over 3.551%
On Target Over 4.534%
On Target Over 5.521%
Expected on target3.85
Shots per Game
Lyon — total shots (home)13.5
Le Havre — total shots (away)9.9
Shots on Target
Lyon — on target (home)4.8
Le Havre — on target (away)3.4
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Lyon
Inside the box8.32
Outside the box3.94
Le Havre
Inside the box6.76
Outside the box4.18
Player Shots Lyon
Endrick
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target88%
+1.5 On Target44%
C. Tolisso
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target77%
+1.5 On Target10%
M. Fofana
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target17%
P. Šulc
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target19%
M. Satriano
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target18%
Player Shots Le Havre
I. Soumaré
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target59%
+1.5 On Target21%
N. Obougoujacquet
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target0%
M. Samatta
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target11%
R. Khadra
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target13%
A. Touré
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target9%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Lyon xG (home)1.57
Le Havre xG (away)1.13
Average Possession
54.62%
Possession
46.82%
Team Comparison Lyon vs Le Havre
84.71%
Pass accuracy
80.29%
466.88
Passes per match
376.03
0.12
Goals prevented
-0.05
13
Fouls committed
13.71
2.76
Goalkeeper saves
3
1.4
Offsides
2.3
14.59
Tackles per match
17.44
League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Lyon vs Le Havre prediction analysis
Review Lyon vs Le Havre with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Ligue 1.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Ligue 1
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights