Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Lyon vs Ludogorets

Lyon vs Ludogorets prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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UEFA Europa League 2025-01-30 20:00
Lyon
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
31%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Ludogorets
Away

Prediction Summary

1
47%
X
30%
2
23%
Under 2.5
69%
BTTS No
63%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Lyon (Home)

Goals scored / match2
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate33%
BTTS rate50%

Ludogorets (Away)

Goals scored / match0.6
Goals conceded / match0.8
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate40%

Team Form last 5 matches

Lyon
LDWWD
Ludogorets
DLDDL

Goals Comparison rate per team

83% +0.5 40%
67% +1.5 20%
33% +2.5 0%
17% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
50% BTTS 40%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 31%. Model confidence is Medium.

Lyon averages 2 goals scored at home, while Ludogorets averages 0.6 goals scored away.

Model Strength
69%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
47%
Draw
30%
Away Win
23%
Over 2.5
31%
BTTS Yes
37%

Head-to-Head last 1

Jan 2025 Lyon 1 - 1 Ludogorets Draw

In the last 1 meetings, Lyon won 0, drew 1 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Lyon — unbeaten run (home)4
Lyon — scoring streak (home)4
Ludogorets — winless run (away)4
Ludogorets — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Lyon Win (1)47%
Draw (X)30%
Ludogorets Win (2)23%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

83% +0.5 40%
67% +1.5 20%
33% +2.5 0%
17% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

17% -0.5 60%
33% -1.5 80%
67% -2.5 100%
83% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Lyon vs Ludogorets — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Lyon — scored (home)2
Lyon — conceded (home)1
Ludogorets — scored (away)0.6
Ludogorets — conceded (away)0.8
Model expected combined goals1.96

Both Teams To Score

Yes37%
No63%

Rate per Team

Lyon — BTTS matches (home)50%
Ludogorets — BTTS matches (away)40%
Combined (simple average)45%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.574%
Under 4.526%
Over 5.574%
Under 5.526%
Over 6.574%
Under 6.526%
Over 7.574%
Under 7.526%
Over 8.555%
Under 8.545%
Over 9.555%
Under 9.545%
Over 10.527%
Under 10.573%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

Lyon (home)

Corners for6.3
Corners against2.7

Ludogorets (away)

Corners for3.6
Corners against5.6

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Lyon
15 11 4 13 10
Ludogorets
9 10 14 11 15

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.592%
Under 0.58%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.592%
Under 2.58%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)6

Yellow Cards per Team

Lyon (home)

For2.0

Ludogorets (away)

For3.0

Shots per Game

Lyon — total shots (home)18.8
Ludogorets — total shots (away)10.0

Shots on Target

Lyon — on target (home)6.8
Ludogorets — on target (away)3.6

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Lyon

Inside the box11.83
Outside the box5.33

Ludogorets

Inside the box5.75
Outside the box4.5

Player Shots Lyon

T. Almada
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target25%
P. Akouokou
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target33%
E. Nuamah
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target33%
M. Fofana
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target30%
R. Cherki
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target33%

Player Shots Ludogorets

Caio Vidal
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target20%
A. Camara
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target14%
+1.5 On Target14%
K. Duah
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target17%
Rwan Cruz
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target13%
Erick Marcus
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target14%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Lyon xG (home)1.88
Ludogorets xG (away)0.96

Average Possession

56.42% Possession 46.22%

Team Comparison Lyon vs Ludogorets

85.33% Pass accuracy 78.75%
545.83 Passes per match 397.25
0.12 Goals prevented 0.29
11.5 Fouls committed 11.11
3.58 Goalkeeper saves 4.89
2 Offsides 1.56
17.5 Tackles per match 17.13

League average xG this season is 1.47 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Lyon vs Ludogorets prediction analysis

Review Lyon vs Ludogorets with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from UEFA Europa League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance UEFA Europa League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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