Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Lyon vs Manchester United

Lyon vs Manchester United prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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UEFA Europa League 2025-04-10 19:00
Lyon
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
55%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Manchester United
Away

Prediction Summary

1
44%
X
24%
2
31%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Lyon (Home)

Goals scored / match2
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate33%
BTTS rate50%

Manchester United (Away)

Goals scored / match1.75
Goals conceded / match1.13
Over 2.5 rate25%
BTTS rate63%

Team Form last 5 matches

Lyon
LDWWD
Manchester United
LWWWD

Goals Comparison rate per team

83% +0.5 88%
67% +1.5 63%
33% +2.5 25%
17% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
50% BTTS 63%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 55%. Model confidence is Medium.

Lyon averages 2 goals scored at home, while Manchester United averages 1.75 goals scored away.

Model Strength
58%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
44%
Draw
24%
Away Win
31%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Yes
58%

Head-to-Head last 2

Apr 2025 Lyon(A) 4 - 5 Manchester United Away
Apr 2025 Lyon 2 - 2 Manchester United Draw

In the last 2 meetings, Lyon won 0, drew 1 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Lyon — unbeaten run (home)4
Lyon — scoring streak (home)4
Manchester United — winless run (away)1
Manchester United — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Lyon Win (1)44%
Draw (X)24%
Manchester United Win (2)31%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

83% +0.5 88%
67% +1.5 63%
33% +2.5 25%
17% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

17% -0.5 12%
33% -1.5 37%
67% -2.5 75%
83% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Lyon vs Manchester United — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Lyon — scored (home)2
Lyon — conceded (home)1
Manchester United — scored (away)1.75
Manchester United — conceded (away)1.13
Model expected combined goals2.9

Both Teams To Score

Yes58%
No42%

Rate per Team

Lyon — BTTS matches (home)50%
Manchester United — BTTS matches (away)63%
Combined (simple average)56.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.584%
Under 4.516%
Over 5.584%
Under 5.516%
Over 6.578%
Under 6.522%
Over 7.578%
Under 7.522%
Over 8.557%
Under 8.543%
Over 9.538%
Under 9.562%
Over 10.529%
Under 10.571%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.30

Per-Team Corners own matches

Lyon (home)

Corners for6.3
Corners against2.7

Manchester United (away)

Corners for5.5
Corners against4.1

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Lyon
15 11 4 13 10
Manchester United
13 10 9 2 9

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.592%
Under 0.58%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.586%
Under 2.514%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.7

Yellow Cards per Team

Lyon (home)

For2.0

Manchester United (away)

For2.4

Shots per Game

Lyon — total shots (home)18.8
Manchester United — total shots (away)16.9

Shots on Target

Lyon — on target (home)6.8
Manchester United — on target (away)6.4

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Lyon

Inside the box11.83
Outside the box5.33

Manchester United

Inside the box12.47
Outside the box5.07

Player Shots Lyon

T. Almada
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target25%
P. Akouokou
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target33%
E. Nuamah
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target33%
M. Fofana
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target30%
R. Cherki
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target33%

Player Shots Manchester United

M. Mount
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target22%
+1.5 On Target22%
Bruno Fernandes
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target21%
K. Mainoo
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target13%
R. Højlund
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target20%
A. Garnacho
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target27%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Lyon xG (home)1.88
Manchester United xG (away)2.15

Average Possession

56.42% Possession 58.33%

Team Comparison Lyon vs Manchester United

85.33% Pass accuracy 85.27%
545.83 Passes per match 539.2
0.12 Goals prevented -0.18
11.5 Fouls committed 10.07
3.58 Goalkeeper saves 2.67
2 Offsides 1.57
17.5 Tackles per match 18

League average xG this season is 1.47 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Lyon vs Manchester United prediction analysis

Review Lyon vs Manchester United with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from UEFA Europa League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance UEFA Europa League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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