Prediction Analysis: Lyon vs Rennes
Lyon vs Rennes prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Ligue 1
2026-09-19
15:00
Lyon
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
63%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Rennes
Away
Prediction Summary
1
49%
X
23%
2
29%
+2.5 Goals
63%
BTTS
63%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Lyon (Home)
Goals scored / match1.76
Goals conceded / match1.06
Over 2.5 rate24%
BTTS rate47%
Rennes (Away)
Goals scored / match1.71
Goals conceded / match1.94
Over 2.5 rate24%
BTTS rate47%
Team Form last 5 matches
Lyon
LLWWW
Rennes
LWLWW
Goals Comparison rate per team
94%
+0.5
82%
53%
+1.5
53%
24%
+2.5
24%
6%
+3.5
12%
0%
+4.5
0%
47%
BTTS
47%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 63%. Model confidence is Medium.
Lyon averages 1.76 goals scored at home, while Rennes averages 1.71 goals scored away.
Model Strength
63%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
49%
Draw
23%
Away Win
29%
Over 2.5
63%
BTTS Yes
63%
Head-to-Head last 5
May 2026
Lyon
4 - 2
Rennes
Home
Sep 2025
Lyon(A)
1 - 3
Rennes
Away
Apr 2025
Lyon
4 - 1
Rennes
Home
Aug 2024
Lyon(A)
0 - 3
Rennes
Away
Jan 2024
Lyon
2 - 3
Rennes
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Lyon won 2, drew 0 and lost 3.
Current Streaks
Lyon — unbeaten run (home)0
Lyon — scoring streak (home)0
Rennes — winless run (away)2
Rennes — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Lyon Win (1)49%
Draw (X)23%
Rennes Win (2)29%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
94%
+0.5
82%
53%
+1.5
53%
24%
+2.5
24%
6%
+3.5
12%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
6%
-0.5
18%
47%
-1.5
47%
76%
-2.5
76%
94%
-3.5
88%
100%
-4.5
100%
Lyon vs Rennes — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Lyon — scored (home)1.76
Lyon — conceded (home)1.06
Rennes — scored (away)1.71
Rennes — conceded (away)1.94
Model expected combined goals3.24
Both Teams To Score
Yes63%
No37%
Rate per Team
Lyon — BTTS matches (home)47%
Rennes — BTTS matches (away)47%
Combined (simple average)47%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.557%
Under 8.543%
Over 9.546%
Under 9.554%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.50
Per-Team Corners own matches
Lyon (home)
Corners for6.5
Corners against4.1
Rennes (away)
Corners for5.5
Corners against4.6
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Lyon
18
9
12
15
28
Rennes
11
14
12
10
15
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.594%
Under 1.56%
Over 2.582%
Under 2.518%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.9
Yellow Cards per Team
Lyon (home)
For1.6
Rennes (away)
For2.0
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.573%
Under 19.527%
Over 22.560%
Under 22.540%
Over 25.547%
Under 25.553%
Expected total shots25.62
Lyon
Shots Over 9.577%
Shots Over 11.563%
Shots Over 13.548%
Expected shots13.73
On Target Over 3.569%
On Target Over 4.553%
On Target Over 5.538%
Expected on target5.00
Rennes
Shots Over 9.566%
Shots Over 11.549%
Shots Over 13.534%
Expected shots11.89
On Target Over 3.560%
On Target Over 4.543%
On Target Over 5.529%
Expected on target4.36
Shots per Game
Lyon — total shots (home)13.5
Rennes — total shots (away)12.5
Shots on Target
Lyon — on target (home)4.8
Rennes — on target (away)4.5
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Lyon
Inside the box8.32
Outside the box3.94
Rennes
Inside the box8.82
Outside the box5.35
Player Shots Lyon
Endrick
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target88%
+1.5 On Target44%
C. Tolisso
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target77%
+1.5 On Target10%
M. Fofana
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target17%
P. Šulc
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target19%
M. Satriano
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target18%
Player Shots Rennes
E. Lepaul
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target75%
+1.5 On Target34%
Mousa Tamari
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target18%
B. Embolo
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target10%
A. Nordin
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target0%
L. Blas
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target6%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Lyon xG (home)1.57
Rennes xG (away)1.59
Average Possession
54.62%
Possession
53.5%
Team Comparison Lyon vs Rennes
84.71%
Pass accuracy
84.18%
466.88
Passes per match
477
0.12
Goals prevented
-0.01
13
Fouls committed
12.38
2.76
Goalkeeper saves
2.88
1.4
Offsides
2.41
14.59
Tackles per match
16.15
League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Lyon vs Rennes prediction analysis
Review Lyon vs Rennes with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Ligue 1.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Ligue 1
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights