Prediction Analysis: Manchester City vs Bayer Leverkusen
Manchester City vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Manchester City
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
45%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Bayer Leverkusen
Away
Prediction Summary
1
44%
X
27%
2
29%
Under 2.5
55%
BTTS · No edge
50%
Confidence
Low
Market Evidence
Manchester City (Home)
Goals scored / match1.8
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate20%
BTTS rate40%
Bayer Leverkusen (Away)
Goals scored / match1.17
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate17%
Team Form last 5 matches
Manchester City
LLWLW
Bayer Leverkusen
LDDWW
Goals Comparison rate per team
80%
+0.5
67%
60%
+1.5
50%
20%
+2.5
0%
20%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
40%
BTTS
17%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 45%. Model confidence is Low.
Manchester City averages 1.8 goals scored at home, while Bayer Leverkusen averages 1.17 goals scored away.
Model Strength
55%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
44%
Draw
27%
Away Win
29%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
Head-to-Head last 1
Nov 2025
Manchester City
0 - 2
Bayer Leverkusen
Away
In the last 1 meetings, Manchester City won 0, drew 0 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Manchester City — unbeaten run (home)0
Manchester City — scoring streak (home)2
Bayer Leverkusen — winless run (away)1
Bayer Leverkusen — clean sheets (away, last 5)3 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Manchester City Win (1)44%
Draw (X)27%
Bayer Leverkusen Win (2)29%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
80%
+0.5
67%
60%
+1.5
50%
20%
+2.5
0%
20%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
20%
-0.5
33%
40%
-1.5
50%
80%
-2.5
100%
80%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Manchester City vs Bayer Leverkusen — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Manchester City — scored (home)1.8
Manchester City — conceded (home)1
Bayer Leverkusen — scored (away)1.17
Bayer Leverkusen — conceded (away)1
Model expected combined goals2.48
Both Teams To Score
Yes50%
No50%
Rate per Team
Manchester City — BTTS matches (home)40%
Bayer Leverkusen — BTTS matches (away)17%
Combined (simple average)28.5%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.5100%
Under 5.50%
Over 6.584%
Under 6.516%
Over 7.584%
Under 7.516%
Over 8.564%
Under 8.536%
Over 9.555%
Under 9.545%
Over 10.547%
Under 10.553%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.50
Per-Team Corners own matches
Manchester City (home)
Corners for7.0
Corners against3.8
Bayer Leverkusen (away)
Corners for4.5
Corners against5.7
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Manchester City
6
11
8
11
15
Bayer Leverkusen
5
6
9
5
18
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)2.5
Yellow Cards per Team
Manchester City (home)
For0.6
Bayer Leverkusen (away)
For1.7
Shots per Game
Manchester City — total shots (home)18.4
Bayer Leverkusen — total shots (away)10.5
Shots on Target
Manchester City — on target (home)7.8
Bayer Leverkusen — on target (away)3.7
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Manchester City
Inside the box11
Outside the box4.6
Bayer Leverkusen
Inside the box7.25
Outside the box3.75
Player Shots Manchester City
E. Haaland
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target80%
+1.5 On Target50%
R. Cherki
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target75%
+1.5 On Target38%
N. O'Reilly
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target100%
+1.5 On Target0%
P. Foden
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target14%
T. Reijnders
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target10%
Player Shots Bayer Leverkusen
P. Schick
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target22%
Álex Grimaldo
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target8%
Christian Kofane
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target0%
M. Terrier
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target0%
M. Tillman
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target10%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Manchester City xG (home)1.69
Bayer Leverkusen xG (away)1.38
Average Possession
58.7%
Possession
52.25%
Team Comparison Manchester City vs Bayer Leverkusen
90.5%
Pass accuracy
86.75%
600.9
Passes per match
536
0.23
Goals prevented
0.2
9.9
Fouls committed
8.58
2.1
Goalkeeper saves
3.25
1.33
Offsides
1.3
14.1
Tackles per match
14.83
League average xG this season is 1.65 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Manchester City vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction analysis
Review Manchester City vs Bayer Leverkusen with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from UEFA Champions League.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
UEFA Champions League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights