Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Manchester City vs Bournemouth

Manchester City vs Bournemouth prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Premier League 2026-08-23 13:00
Manchester City
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
62%
Confidence
Medium
Score
2-1
Bournemouth
Away

Prediction Summary

1
59%
X
21%
2
20%
Over 2.5
62%
BTTS Yes
59%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Manchester City (Home)

Goals scored / match2.37
Goals conceded / match0.74
Over 2.5 rate53%
BTTS rate47%

Bournemouth (Away)

Goals scored / match1.53
Goals conceded / match1.79
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate68%

Team Form last 5 matches

Manchester City
LDWWD
Bournemouth
DDWWD

Goals Comparison rate per team

95% +0.5 84%
79% +1.5 53%
53% +2.5 11%
5% +3.5 5%
5% +4.5 0%
47% BTTS 68%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 62%. Model confidence is Medium.

Manchester City averages 2.37 goals scored at home, while Bournemouth averages 1.53 goals scored away.

Model Strength
62%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
59%
Draw
21%
Away Win
20%
Over 2.5
62%
BTTS Yes
59%

Head-to-Head last 5

May 2026 Manchester City(A) 1 - 1 Bournemouth Draw
Nov 2025 Manchester City 3 - 1 Bournemouth Home
May 2025 Manchester City 3 - 1 Bournemouth Home
Mar 2025 Manchester City(A) 2 - 1 Bournemouth Home
Nov 2024 Manchester City(A) 1 - 2 Bournemouth Away

In the last 5 meetings, Manchester City won 3, drew 1 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Manchester City — unbeaten run (home)0
Manchester City — scoring streak (home)18
Bournemouth — winless run (away)1
Bournemouth — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Manchester City Win (1)59%
Draw (X)21%
Bournemouth Win (2)20%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

95% +0.5 84%
79% +1.5 53%
53% +2.5 11%
5% +3.5 5%
5% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

5% -0.5 16%
21% -1.5 47%
47% -2.5 89%
95% -3.5 95%
95% -4.5 100%

Manchester City vs Bournemouth — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Manchester City — scored (home)2.37
Manchester City — conceded (home)0.74
Bournemouth — scored (away)1.53
Bournemouth — conceded (away)1.79
Model expected combined goals3.21

Both Teams To Score

Yes59%
No41%

Rate per Team

Manchester City — BTTS matches (home)47%
Bournemouth — BTTS matches (away)68%
Combined (simple average)57.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.543%
Under 10.557%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Manchester City (home)

Corners for7.1
Corners against3.3

Bournemouth (away)

Corners for5.2
Corners against6.6

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Manchester City
14 12 13 13 13
Bournemouth
13 8 13 13 9

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.574%
Under 2.526%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.2

Yellow Cards per Team

Manchester City (home)

For1.6

Bournemouth (away)

For2.5

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.576%
Under 19.524%
Over 22.564%
Under 22.536%
Over 25.551%
Under 25.549%
Expected total shots26.57

Manchester City

Shots Over 9.585%
Shots Over 11.574%
Shots Over 13.561%
Expected shots15.78
On Target Over 3.576%
On Target Over 4.561%
On Target Over 5.546%
Expected on target5.54

Bournemouth

Shots Over 9.557%
Shots Over 11.540%
Shots Over 13.525%
Expected shots10.78
On Target Over 3.551%
On Target Over 4.534%
On Target Over 5.521%
Expected on target3.83

Shots per Game

Manchester City — total shots (home)16.4
Bournemouth — total shots (away)13.1

Shots on Target

Manchester City — on target (home)6.1
Bournemouth — on target (away)4.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Manchester City

Inside the box11.32
Outside the box4.34

Bournemouth

Inside the box8.21
Outside the box5.58

Player Shots Manchester City

E. Haaland
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target83%
+1.5 On Target46%
A. Semenyo
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target18%
P. Foden
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target15%
T. Reijnders
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target4%
J. Doku
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target13%

Player Shots Bournemouth

A. Semenyo
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target85%
+1.5 On Target30%
M. Tavernier
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target15%
E. Kroupi
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target15%
Evanilson
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target17%
Rayan
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target7%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Manchester City xG (home)1.87
Bournemouth xG (away)1.63

Average Possession

60.5% Possession 50.18%

Team Comparison Manchester City vs Bournemouth

88.03% Pass accuracy 79.26%
586.53 Passes per match 413.87
-0.1 Goals prevented -0.1
9.68 Fouls committed 12.03
2.42 Goalkeeper saves 2.95
1.16 Offsides 1.97
14.42 Tackles per match 17.21

League average xG this season is 1.4 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Manchester City vs Bournemouth prediction analysis

Review Manchester City vs Bournemouth with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Premier League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Premier League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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