Prediction Analysis: Manchester United vs Chelsea
Manchester United vs Chelsea prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Premier League
2024-11-03
16:30
Manchester United
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
60%
Confidence
Medium
Score
0-2
Chelsea
Away
Prediction Summary
1
13%
X
18%
2
68%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Yes
52%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Manchester United (Home)
Goals scored / match1.21
Goals conceded / match1.47
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate37%
Chelsea (Away)
Goals scored / match1.53
Goals conceded / match1.32
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate53%
Team Form last 5 matches
Manchester United
WLLLD
Chelsea
WWLWW
Goals Comparison rate per team
58%
+0.5
68%
37%
+1.5
32%
21%
+2.5
21%
5%
+3.5
16%
0%
+4.5
11%
37%
BTTS
53%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 60%. Model confidence is Medium.
Manchester United averages 1.21 goals scored at home, while Chelsea averages 1.53 goals scored away.
Model Strength
68%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
13%
Draw
18%
Away Win
68%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Yes
52%
Head-to-Head last 5
Apr 2026
Manchester United(A)
1 - 0
Chelsea
Home
Sep 2025
Manchester United
2 - 1
Chelsea
Home
May 2025
Manchester United(A)
0 - 1
Chelsea
Away
Nov 2024
Manchester United
1 - 1
Chelsea
Draw
Apr 2024
Manchester United(A)
3 - 4
Chelsea
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Manchester United won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.
Current Streaks
Manchester United — unbeaten run (home)1
Manchester United — scoring streak (home)1
Chelsea — winless run (away)0
Chelsea — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Manchester United Win (1)13%
Draw (X)18%
Chelsea Win (2)68%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
58%
+0.5
68%
37%
+1.5
32%
21%
+2.5
21%
5%
+3.5
16%
0%
+4.5
11%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
42%
-0.5
32%
63%
-1.5
68%
79%
-2.5
79%
95%
-3.5
84%
100%
-4.5
89%
Manchester United vs Chelsea — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Manchester United — scored (home)1.21
Manchester United — conceded (home)1.47
Chelsea — scored (away)1.53
Chelsea — conceded (away)1.32
Model expected combined goals3.13
Both Teams To Score
Yes52%
No48%
Rate per Team
Manchester United — BTTS matches (home)37%
Chelsea — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)45%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.598%
Under 4.52%
Over 5.589%
Under 5.511%
Over 6.582%
Under 6.518%
Over 7.574%
Under 7.526%
Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.547%
Under 10.553%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.50
Per-Team Corners own matches
Manchester United (home)
Corners for5.5
Corners against3.7
Chelsea (away)
Corners for5.8
Corners against3.9
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Manchester United
15
10
13
9
7
Chelsea
12
9
10
9
11
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.582%
Under 2.518%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.9
Yellow Cards per Team
Manchester United (home)
For2.2
Chelsea (away)
For2.7
Shots per Game
Manchester United — total shots (home)14.8
Chelsea — total shots (away)13.5
Shots on Target
Manchester United — on target (home)4.7
Chelsea — on target (away)4.8
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Manchester United
Inside the box8.76
Outside the box5.11
Chelsea
Inside the box10.37
Outside the box5.29
Player Shots Manchester United
A. Garnacho
Shots on Target/Game1.9
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target22%
M. Rashford
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target20%
Bruno Fernandes
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target22%
M. Mount
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target12%
M. de Ligt
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target21%
+1.5 On Target7%
Player Shots Chelsea
N. Madueke
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target25%
C. Palmer
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target81%
+1.5 On Target30%
N. Jackson
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target73%
+1.5 On Target33%
T. Chalobah
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target15%
+1.5 On Target8%
Pedro Neto
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target14%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Manchester United xG (home)1.4
Chelsea xG (away)1.82
Average Possession
53.55%
Possession
57.18%
Team Comparison Manchester United vs Chelsea
84.05%
Pass accuracy
86.29%
497.68
Passes per match
520.5
0.06
Goals prevented
0.11
10.61
Fouls committed
11.47
2.65
Goalkeeper saves
3.03
1.92
Offsides
1.76
21.53
Tackles per match
15.39
League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Manchester United vs Chelsea prediction analysis
Review Manchester United vs Chelsea with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Premier League.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Premier League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights