What markets are included in the Marseille vs Monaco prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Marseille vs Monaco prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Marseille vs Monaco

Marseille vs Monaco prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Ligue 1 2025-12-14 19:45

Marseille

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

75%

Confidence

High

Score

2-1

Monaco

Away

Prediction Summary

66%

17%

Over 2.5

75%

BTTS Yes

67%

Confidence

High

Market Evidence

Marseille (Home)

Goals scored / match2.41

Goals conceded / match1.18

Over 2.5 rate47%

BTTS rate65%

Monaco (Away)

Goals scored / match1.59

Goals conceded / match1.82

Over 2.5 rate24%

BTTS rate71%

Team Form last 5 matches

Marseille

WWLDL

Monaco

LLWDD

Goals Comparison rate per team

94% +0.5 71%

65% +1.5 47%

47% +2.5 24%

18% +3.5 12%

12% +4.5 6%

65% BTTS 71%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 75%. Model confidence is High.

Marseille averages 2.41 goals scored at home, while Monaco averages 1.59 goals scored away.

Model Strength

75%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

66%

Draw

17%

Away Win

17%

Over 2.5

75%

BTTS Yes

67%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2026 Marseille(A) 1 - 2 Monaco Away

Dec 2025 Marseille 1 - 0 Monaco Home

Apr 2025 Marseille(A) 0 - 3 Monaco Away

Dec 2024 Marseille 2 - 1 Monaco Home

Jan 2024 Marseille 2 - 2 Monaco Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Marseille won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Marseille — unbeaten run (home)3

Marseille — scoring streak (home)8

Monaco — winless run (away)1

Monaco — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Marseille Win (1)66%

Draw (X)17%

Monaco Win (2)17%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

94% +0.5 71%

65% +1.5 47%

47% +2.5 24%

18% +3.5 12%

12% +4.5 6%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

6% -0.5 29%

35% -1.5 53%

53% -2.5 76%

82% -3.5 88%

88% -4.5 94%

Marseille vs Monaco — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Marseille — scored (home)2.41

Marseille — conceded (home)1.18

Monaco — scored (away)1.59

Monaco — conceded (away)1.82

Model expected combined goals3.93

Both Teams To Score

Yes67%

No33%

Rate per Team

Marseille — BTTS matches (home)65%

Monaco — BTTS matches (away)71%

Combined (simple average)68%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.591%

Under 4.59%

Over 5.588%

Under 5.512%

Over 6.579%

Under 6.521%

Over 7.576%

Under 7.524%

Over 8.565%

Under 8.535%

Over 9.556%

Under 9.544%

Over 10.530%

Under 10.570%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.30

Per-Team Corners own matches

Marseille (home)

Corners for5.6

Corners against3.2

Monaco (away)

Corners for5.2

Corners against4.6

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Marseille

8 8 15 3 15

Monaco

14 6 14 7 10

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.588%

Under 1.512%

Over 2.585%

Under 2.515%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4

Yellow Cards per Team

Marseille (home)

For2.2

Monaco (away)

For2.6

Shots per Game

Marseille — total shots (home)15.8

Monaco — total shots (away)12.9

Shots on Target

Marseille — on target (home)6.3

Monaco — on target (away)4.4

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Marseille

Inside the box9.62

Outside the box5.47

Monaco

Inside the box9.18

Outside the box3.35

Player Shots Marseille

M. Greenwood

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target81%

+1.5 On Target41%

P. Aubameyang

Shots on Target/Game1.1

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target30%

A. Gouiri

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target55%

+1.5 On Target14%

Igor Paixão

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target60%

+1.5 On Target13%

H. Traorè

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target46%

+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Monaco

F. Balogun

Shots on Target/Game1.1

+0.5 On Target73%

+1.5 On Target27%

Ansu Fati

Shots on Target/Game1

+0.5 On Target64%

+1.5 On Target28%

A. Golovin

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target44%

+1.5 On Target16%

M. Akliouche

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target52%

+1.5 On Target10%

Pape Cabral

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Marseille xG (home)1.81

Monaco xG (away)1.7

Average Possession

56.94% Possession 53.79%

Team Comparison Marseille vs Monaco

87.15% Pass accuracy 83.32%

540.71 Passes per match 480.44

-0.27 Goals prevented -0.11

12.71 Fouls committed 12.97

2.62 Goalkeeper saves 2.76

1.24 Offsides 2.43

14.91 Tackles per match 17.53

League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Marseille vs Monaco prediction analysis

Review Marseille vs Monaco with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Ligue 1.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Ligue 1

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights