What markets are included in the Marseille vs Nantes prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Marseille vs Nantes prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Marseille vs Nantes

Marseille vs Nantes prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Ligue 1 2026-01-04 14:00

Marseille

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

62%

Confidence

Medium

Score

2-0

Nantes

Away

Prediction Summary

70%

18%

13%

Over 2.5

62%

BTTS Yes

53%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Marseille (Home)

Goals scored / match2.41

Goals conceded / match1.18

Over 2.5 rate47%

BTTS rate65%

Nantes (Away)

Goals scored / match0.65

Goals conceded / match1.47

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate41%

Team Form last 5 matches

Marseille

WWLDL

Nantes

LWLLD

Goals Comparison rate per team

94% +0.5 47%

65% +1.5 18%

47% +2.5 0%

18% +3.5 0%

12% +4.5 0%

65% BTTS 41%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 62%. Model confidence is Medium.

Marseille averages 2.41 goals scored at home, while Nantes averages 0.65 goals scored away.

Model Strength

70%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

70%

Draw

18%

Away Win

13%

Over 2.5

62%

BTTS Yes

53%

Head-to-Head last 5

May 2026 Marseille(A) 0 - 3 Nantes Away

Jan 2026 Marseille 0 - 2 Nantes Away

Mar 2025 Marseille 2 - 0 Nantes Home

Nov 2024 Marseille(A) 2 - 1 Nantes Home

Mar 2024 Marseille 2 - 0 Nantes Home

In the last 5 meetings, Marseille won 3, drew 0 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Marseille — unbeaten run (home)3

Marseille — scoring streak (home)8

Nantes — winless run (away)8

Nantes — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Marseille Win (1)70%

Draw (X)18%

Nantes Win (2)13%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

94% +0.5 47%

65% +1.5 18%

47% +2.5 0%

18% +3.5 0%

12% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

6% -0.5 53%

35% -1.5 82%

53% -2.5 100%

82% -3.5 100%

88% -4.5 100%

Marseille vs Nantes — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Marseille — scored (home)2.41

Marseille — conceded (home)1.18

Nantes — scored (away)0.65

Nantes — conceded (away)1.47

Model expected combined goals3.19

Both Teams To Score

Yes53%

No47%

Rate per Team

Marseille — BTTS matches (home)65%

Nantes — BTTS matches (away)41%

Combined (simple average)53%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.594%

Under 4.56%

Over 5.582%

Under 5.518%

Over 6.579%

Under 6.521%

Over 7.574%

Under 7.526%

Over 8.565%

Under 8.535%

Over 9.550%

Under 9.550%

Over 10.533%

Under 10.567%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Marseille (home)

Corners for5.6

Corners against3.2

Nantes (away)

Corners for3.4

Corners against6.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Marseille

8 8 15 3 15

Nantes

11 13 14 15 11

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.594%

Under 1.56%

Over 2.591%

Under 2.59%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.2

Yellow Cards per Team

Marseille (home)

For2.2

Nantes (away)

For2.1

Shots per Game

Marseille — total shots (home)15.8

Nantes — total shots (away)10.6

Shots on Target

Marseille — on target (home)6.3

Nantes — on target (away)3.1

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Marseille

Inside the box9.62

Outside the box5.47

Nantes

Inside the box7.3

Outside the box4

Player Shots Marseille

M. Greenwood

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target81%

+1.5 On Target41%

P. Aubameyang

Shots on Target/Game1.1

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target30%

A. Gouiri

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target55%

+1.5 On Target14%

Igor Paixão

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target60%

+1.5 On Target13%

H. Traorè

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target46%

+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Nantes

M. Abline

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target53%

+1.5 On Target19%

I. Ganago

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target46%

+1.5 On Target8%

M. Kaba

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target8%

R. Cabella

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target27%

+1.5 On Target18%

Y. El-Arabi

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target28%

+1.5 On Target8%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Marseille xG (home)1.81

Nantes xG (away)1.1

Average Possession

56.94% Possession 42.03%

Team Comparison Marseille vs Nantes

87.15% Pass accuracy 77.85%

540.71 Passes per match 349.06

-0.27 Goals prevented 0.1

12.71 Fouls committed 12.76

2.62 Goalkeeper saves 3.27

1.24 Offsides 1.31

14.91 Tackles per match 17.21

League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Marseille vs Nantes prediction analysis

Review Marseille vs Nantes with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Ligue 1.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Ligue 1

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights