What markets are included in the Marseille vs Paris FC prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Marseille vs Paris FC prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Marseille vs Paris FC

Marseille vs Paris FC prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Ligue 1 2026-09-05 15:00

Marseille

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

58%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-1

Paris FC

Away

Prediction Summary

55%

22%

23%

+2.5 Goals

58%

BTTS

58%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Marseille (Home)

Goals scored / match2.41

Goals conceded / match1.18

Over 2.5 rate47%

BTTS rate65%

Paris FC (Away)

Goals scored / match1.12

Goals conceded / match1.35

Over 2.5 rate6%

BTTS rate71%

Team Form last 5 matches

Marseille

WWLDL

Paris FC

WLWLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

94% +0.5 76%

65% +1.5 29%

47% +2.5 6%

18% +3.5 0%

12% +4.5 0%

65% BTTS 71%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 58%. Model confidence is Medium.

Marseille averages 2.41 goals scored at home, while Paris FC averages 1.12 goals scored away.

Model Strength

58%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

55%

Draw

22%

Away Win

23%

Over 2.5

58%

BTTS Yes

58%

Head-to-Head last 2

Jan 2026 Marseille(A) 2 - 2 Paris FC Draw

Aug 2025 Marseille 5 - 2 Paris FC Home

In the last 2 meetings, Marseille won 1, drew 1 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Marseille — unbeaten run (home)3

Marseille — scoring streak (home)8

Paris FC — winless run (away)1

Paris FC — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Marseille Win (1)55%

Draw (X)22%

Paris FC Win (2)23%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

94% +0.5 76%

65% +1.5 29%

47% +2.5 6%

18% +3.5 0%

12% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

6% -0.5 24%

35% -1.5 71%

53% -2.5 94%

82% -3.5 100%

88% -4.5 100%

Marseille vs Paris FC — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Marseille — scored (home)2.41

Marseille — conceded (home)1.18

Paris FC — scored (away)1.12

Paris FC — conceded (away)1.35

Model expected combined goals3.03

Both Teams To Score

Yes58%

No42%

Rate per Team

Marseille — BTTS matches (home)65%

Paris FC — BTTS matches (away)71%

Combined (simple average)68%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.557%

Under 8.543%

Over 9.546%

Under 9.554%

Over 10.537%

Under 10.563%

Expected total corners (model prediction)9.50

Per-Team Corners own matches

Marseille (home)

Corners for5.6

Corners against3.2

Paris FC (away)

Corners for3.2

Corners against6.8

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Marseille

8 8 15 3 15

Paris FC

11 10 10 10 6

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.585%

Under 1.515%

Over 2.574%

Under 2.526%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.5

Yellow Cards per Team

Marseille (home)

For2.2

Paris FC (away)

For1.8

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.570%

Under 19.530%

Over 22.556%

Under 22.544%

Over 25.542%

Under 25.558%

Expected total shots24.67

Marseille

Shots Over 9.580%

Shots Over 11.566%

Shots Over 13.552%

Expected shots14.30

On Target Over 3.571%

On Target Over 4.556%

On Target Over 5.541%

Expected on target5.21

Paris FC

Shots Over 9.554%

Shots Over 11.536%

Shots Over 13.522%

Expected shots10.37

On Target Over 3.549%

On Target Over 4.533%

On Target Over 5.520%

Expected on target3.74

Shots per Game

Marseille — total shots (home)15.8

Paris FC — total shots (away)9.9

Shots on Target

Marseille — on target (home)6.3

Paris FC — on target (away)3.4

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Marseille

Inside the box9.62

Outside the box5.47

Paris FC

Inside the box7.79

Outside the box3.88

Player Shots Marseille

M. Greenwood

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target81%

+1.5 On Target41%

P. Aubameyang

Shots on Target/Game1.1

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target30%

A. Gouiri

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target55%

+1.5 On Target14%

Igor Paixão

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target60%

+1.5 On Target13%

H. Traorè

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target46%

+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Paris FC

I. Kebbal

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target55%

+1.5 On Target10%

L. Koleosho

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target44%

+1.5 On Target19%

M. Munetsi

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target53%

+1.5 On Target7%

R. Matondo

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target27%

+1.5 On Target9%

C. Immobile

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target42%

+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Marseille xG (home)1.81

Paris FC xG (away)1.32

Average Possession

56.94% Possession 50.38%

Team Comparison Marseille vs Paris FC

87.15% Pass accuracy 84.03%

540.71 Passes per match 467.88

-0.27 Goals prevented 0

12.71 Fouls committed 10.65

2.62 Goalkeeper saves 2.56

1.24 Offsides 2.21

14.91 Tackles per match 15.68

League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Marseille vs Paris FC prediction analysis

Review Marseille vs Paris FC with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Ligue 1.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Ligue 1

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights