Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain

Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Ligue 1 2026-09-20 18:45
Marseille
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
63%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Paris Saint Germain
Away

Prediction Summary

1
42%
X
23%
2
35%
+2.5 Goals
63%
BTTS
65%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Marseille (Home)

Goals scored / match2.41
Goals conceded / match1.18
Over 2.5 rate47%
BTTS rate65%

Paris Saint Germain (Away)

Goals scored / match1.94
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate35%
BTTS rate47%

Team Form last 5 matches

Marseille
WWLDL
Paris Saint Germain
LWWDW

Goals Comparison rate per team

94% +0.5 88%
65% +1.5 47%
47% +2.5 35%
18% +3.5 12%
12% +4.5 6%
65% BTTS 47%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 63%. Model confidence is Medium.

Marseille averages 2.41 goals scored at home, while Paris Saint Germain averages 1.94 goals scored away.

Model Strength
65%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
42%
Draw
23%
Away Win
35%
Over 2.5
63%
BTTS Yes
65%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 Marseille(A) 0 - 5 Paris Saint Germain Away
Sep 2025 Marseille 1 - 0 Paris Saint Germain Home
Mar 2025 Marseille(A) 1 - 3 Paris Saint Germain Away
Oct 2024 Marseille 0 - 3 Paris Saint Germain Away
Mar 2024 Marseille 0 - 2 Paris Saint Germain Away

In the last 5 meetings, Marseille won 1, drew 0 and lost 4.

Current Streaks

Marseille — unbeaten run (home)3
Marseille — scoring streak (home)8
Paris Saint Germain — winless run (away)1
Paris Saint Germain — clean sheets (away, last 5)4 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Marseille Win (1)42%
Draw (X)23%
Paris Saint Germain Win (2)35%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

94% +0.5 88%
65% +1.5 47%
47% +2.5 35%
18% +3.5 12%
12% +4.5 6%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

6% -0.5 12%
35% -1.5 53%
53% -2.5 65%
82% -3.5 88%
88% -4.5 94%

Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Marseille — scored (home)2.41
Marseille — conceded (home)1.18
Paris Saint Germain — scored (away)1.94
Paris Saint Germain — conceded (away)1
Model expected combined goals3.27

Both Teams To Score

Yes65%
No35%

Rate per Team

Marseille — BTTS matches (home)65%
Paris Saint Germain — BTTS matches (away)47%
Combined (simple average)56%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.557%
Under 8.543%
Over 9.546%
Under 9.554%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.50

Per-Team Corners own matches

Marseille (home)

Corners for5.6
Corners against3.2

Paris Saint Germain (away)

Corners for5.2
Corners against3.6

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Marseille
8 8 15 3 15
Paris Saint Germain
9 14 15 9 6

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.2

Yellow Cards per Team

Marseille (home)

For2.2

Paris Saint Germain (away)

For0.9

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.574%
Under 19.526%
Over 22.561%
Under 22.539%
Over 25.547%
Under 25.553%
Expected total shots25.76

Marseille

Shots Over 9.576%
Shots Over 11.561%
Shots Over 13.546%
Expected shots13.46
On Target Over 3.568%
On Target Over 4.552%
On Target Over 5.537%
Expected on target4.93

Paris Saint Germain

Shots Over 9.569%
Shots Over 11.552%
Shots Over 13.537%
Expected shots12.30
On Target Over 3.568%
On Target Over 4.552%
On Target Over 5.537%
Expected on target4.93

Shots per Game

Marseille — total shots (home)15.8
Paris Saint Germain — total shots (away)15.2

Shots on Target

Marseille — on target (home)6.3
Paris Saint Germain — on target (away)6.4

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Marseille

Inside the box9.62
Outside the box5.47

Paris Saint Germain

Inside the box11.18
Outside the box6.53

Player Shots Marseille

M. Greenwood
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target81%
+1.5 On Target41%
P. Aubameyang
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target30%
A. Gouiri
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target14%
Igor Paixão
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target13%
H. Traorè
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Paris Saint Germain

B. Barcola
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target72%
+1.5 On Target31%
K. Kvaratskhelia
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target29%
Gonçalo Ramos
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target23%
D. Doué
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target22%
O. Dembélé
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target59%
+1.5 On Target23%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Marseille xG (home)1.81
Paris Saint Germain xG (away)2.12

Average Possession

56.94% Possession 68.79%

Team Comparison Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain

87.15% Pass accuracy 91.06%
540.71 Passes per match 723.03
-0.27 Goals prevented -0.17
12.71 Fouls committed 9.18
2.62 Goalkeeper saves 2.26
1.24 Offsides 1.4
14.91 Tackles per match 14.88

League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain prediction analysis

Review Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Ligue 1.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Ligue 1
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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