What markets are included in the Marseille vs Toulouse prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Marseille vs Toulouse prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Marseille vs Toulouse

Marseille vs Toulouse prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Ligue 1 2025-11-29 20:05

Marseille

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

61%

Confidence

Medium

Score

2-0

Toulouse

Away

Prediction Summary

68%

19%

14%

Over 2.5

61%

BTTS Yes

54%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Marseille (Home)

Goals scored / match2.41

Goals conceded / match1.18

Over 2.5 rate47%

BTTS rate65%

Toulouse (Away)

Goals scored / match1.38

Goals conceded / match1.38

Over 2.5 rate13%

BTTS rate56%

Team Form last 5 matches

Marseille

WWLDL

Toulouse

WWDLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

94% +0.5 75%

65% +1.5 44%

47% +2.5 13%

18% +3.5 6%

12% +4.5 0%

65% BTTS 56%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 61%. Model confidence is Medium.

Marseille averages 2.41 goals scored at home, while Toulouse averages 1.38 goals scored away.

Model Strength

68%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

68%

Draw

19%

Away Win

14%

Over 2.5

61%

BTTS Yes

54%

Head-to-Head last 5

Mar 2026 Marseille(A) 1 - 0 Toulouse Home

Mar 2026 Marseille 2 - 2 Toulouse Draw

Nov 2025 Marseille 2 - 2 Toulouse Draw

Apr 2025 Marseille 3 - 2 Toulouse Home

Aug 2024 Marseille(A) 3 - 1 Toulouse Home

In the last 5 meetings, Marseille won 3, drew 2 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Marseille — unbeaten run (home)3

Marseille — scoring streak (home)8

Toulouse — winless run (away)0

Toulouse — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Marseille Win (1)68%

Draw (X)19%

Toulouse Win (2)14%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

94% +0.5 75%

65% +1.5 44%

47% +2.5 13%

18% +3.5 6%

12% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

6% -0.5 25%

35% -1.5 56%

53% -2.5 87%

82% -3.5 94%

88% -4.5 100%

Marseille vs Toulouse — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Marseille — scored (home)2.41

Marseille — conceded (home)1.18

Toulouse — scored (away)1.38

Toulouse — conceded (away)1.38

Model expected combined goals3.17

Both Teams To Score

Yes54%

No46%

Rate per Team

Marseille — BTTS matches (home)65%

Toulouse — BTTS matches (away)56%

Combined (simple average)60.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.594%

Under 4.56%

Over 5.591%

Under 5.59%

Over 6.588%

Under 6.512%

Over 7.573%

Under 7.527%

Over 8.558%

Under 8.542%

Over 9.552%

Under 9.548%

Over 10.531%

Under 10.569%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.30

Per-Team Corners own matches

Marseille (home)

Corners for5.6

Corners against3.2

Toulouse (away)

Corners for3.8

Corners against5.9

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Marseille

8 8 15 3 15

Toulouse

6 15 6 11 15

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.591%

Under 1.59%

Over 2.588%

Under 2.512%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.2

Yellow Cards per Team

Marseille (home)

For2.2

Toulouse (away)

For2.9

Shots per Game

Marseille — total shots (home)15.8

Toulouse — total shots (away)10.9

Shots on Target

Marseille — on target (home)6.3

Toulouse — on target (away)3.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Marseille

Inside the box9.62

Outside the box5.47

Toulouse

Inside the box8.36

Outside the box4.48

Player Shots Marseille

M. Greenwood

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target81%

+1.5 On Target41%

P. Aubameyang

Shots on Target/Game1.1

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target30%

A. Gouiri

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target55%

+1.5 On Target14%

Igor Paixão

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target60%

+1.5 On Target13%

H. Traorè

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target46%

+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Toulouse

P. Diop

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target53%

+1.5 On Target13%

F. Magri

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target53%

+1.5 On Target12%

Emersonn

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target52%

+1.5 On Target11%

Julián Vignolo

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target15%

Y. Gboho

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target39%

+1.5 On Target13%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Marseille xG (home)1.81

Toulouse xG (away)1.31

Average Possession

56.94% Possession 42.24%

Team Comparison Marseille vs Toulouse

87.15% Pass accuracy 80.55%

540.71 Passes per match 374

-0.27 Goals prevented 0.07

12.71 Fouls committed 14.36

2.62 Goalkeeper saves 2.58

1.24 Offsides 1.33

14.91 Tackles per match 16.36

League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Marseille vs Toulouse prediction analysis

Review Marseille vs Toulouse with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Ligue 1.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Ligue 1

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights