What markets are included in the Metz vs Marseille prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Metz vs Marseille prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Metz vs Marseille

Metz vs Marseille prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Ligue 1 2025-10-04 15:00

Metz

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

15%

Confidence

High

Score

0-0

Marseille

Away

Prediction Summary

30%

39%

30%

Under 2.5

85%

BTTS No

76%

Confidence

High

Market Evidence

Metz (Home)

Goals scored / match0.88

Goals conceded / match1.88

Over 2.5 rate6%

BTTS rate47%

Marseille (Away)

Goals scored / match1.29

Goals conceded / match1.47

Over 2.5 rate18%

BTTS rate35%

Team Form last 5 matches

Metz

DLLDL

Marseille

WWLDL

Goals Comparison rate per team

53% +0.5 59%

29% +1.5 29%

6% +2.5 18%

0% +3.5 12%

0% +4.5 12%

47% BTTS 35%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 15%. Model confidence is High.

Metz averages 0.88 goals scored at home, while Marseille averages 1.29 goals scored away.

Model Strength

85%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

30%

Draw

39%

Away Win

30%

Over 2.5

15%

BTTS Yes

24%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2026 Metz(A) 1 - 3 Marseille Away

Oct 2025 Metz 0 - 3 Marseille Away

Feb 2024 Metz(A) 1 - 1 Marseille Draw

Aug 2023 Metz 2 - 2 Marseille Draw

Feb 2022 Metz 1 - 2 Marseille Away

In the last 5 meetings, Metz won 0, drew 2 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Metz — unbeaten run (home)0

Metz — scoring streak (home)0

Marseille — winless run (away)0

Marseille — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Metz Win (1)30%

Draw (X)39%

Marseille Win (2)30%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

53% +0.5 59%

29% +1.5 29%

6% +2.5 18%

0% +3.5 12%

0% +4.5 12%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

47% -0.5 41%

71% -1.5 71%

94% -2.5 82%

100% -3.5 88%

100% -4.5 88%

Metz vs Marseille — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Metz — scored (home)0.88

Metz — conceded (home)1.88

Marseille — scored (away)1.29

Marseille — conceded (away)1.47

Model expected combined goals1.33

Both Teams To Score

Yes24%

No76%

Rate per Team

Metz — BTTS matches (home)47%

Marseille — BTTS matches (away)35%

Combined (simple average)41%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.597%

Under 4.53%

Over 5.594%

Under 5.56%

Over 6.585%

Under 6.515%

Over 7.568%

Under 7.532%

Over 8.544%

Under 8.556%

Over 9.532%

Under 9.568%

Over 10.527%

Under 10.573%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Metz (home)

Corners for4.9

Corners against4.3

Marseille (away)

Corners for4.8

Corners against4.1

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Metz

11 10 14 11 14

Marseille

8 8 15 3 15

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.591%

Under 0.59%

Over 1.585%

Under 1.515%

Over 2.574%

Under 2.526%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.6

Yellow Cards per Team

Metz (home)

For1.5

Marseille (away)

For2.7

Shots per Game

Metz — total shots (home)11.8

Marseille — total shots (away)14.4

Shots on Target

Metz — on target (home)3.8

Marseille — on target (away)5.1

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Metz

Inside the box6.26

Outside the box3.79

Marseille

Inside the box9.62

Outside the box5.47

Player Shots Metz

G. Kvilitaia

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target10%

H. Diallo

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target36%

+1.5 On Target12%

G. Hein

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target7%

G. Abuashvili

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target35%

+1.5 On Target4%

K. Kouao

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target4%

Player Shots Marseille

M. Greenwood

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target81%

+1.5 On Target41%

P. Aubameyang

Shots on Target/Game1.1

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target30%

A. Gouiri

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target55%

+1.5 On Target14%

Igor Paixão

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target60%

+1.5 On Target13%

H. Traorè

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target46%

+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Metz xG (home)1.03

Marseille xG (away)1.81

Average Possession

48.94% Possession 56.94%

Team Comparison Metz vs Marseille

85.24% Pass accuracy 87.15%

451.74 Passes per match 540.71

0.07 Goals prevented -0.27

11.38 Fouls committed 12.71

3.62 Goalkeeper saves 2.62

1.5 Offsides 1.24

16.71 Tackles per match 14.91

League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Metz vs Marseille prediction analysis

Review Metz vs Marseille with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Ligue 1.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Ligue 1

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights