Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Middlesbrough vs Sheffield Utd

Middlesbrough vs Sheffield Utd prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

Back to Predictions
Championship 2025-08-30 11:30
Middlesbrough
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
43%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Sheffield Utd
Away

Prediction Summary

1
47%
X
27%
2
26%
Under 2.5
57%
BTTS No
52%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Middlesbrough (Home)

Goals scored / match1.42
Goals conceded / match0.75
Over 2.5 rate17%
BTTS rate46%

Sheffield Utd (Away)

Goals scored / match1.22
Goals conceded / match1.43
Over 2.5 rate17%
BTTS rate43%

Team Form last 5 matches

Middlesbrough
LLDDW
Sheffield Utd
WLLWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

71% +0.5 65%
38% +1.5 39%
17% +2.5 17%
13% +3.5 0%
4% +4.5 0%
46% BTTS 43%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 43%. Model confidence is Medium.

Middlesbrough averages 1.42 goals scored at home, while Sheffield Utd averages 1.22 goals scored away.

Model Strength
57%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
47%
Draw
27%
Away Win
26%
Over 2.5
43%
BTTS Yes
48%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 Middlesbrough(A) 2 - 1 Sheffield Utd Home
Aug 2025 Middlesbrough 1 - 0 Sheffield Utd Home
Feb 2025 Middlesbrough(A) 1 - 3 Sheffield Utd Away
Oct 2024 Middlesbrough 1 - 0 Sheffield Utd Home
Feb 2023 Middlesbrough(A) 3 - 1 Sheffield Utd Home

In the last 5 meetings, Middlesbrough won 4, drew 0 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Middlesbrough — unbeaten run (home)3
Middlesbrough — scoring streak (home)0
Sheffield Utd — winless run (away)0
Sheffield Utd — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Middlesbrough Win (1)47%
Draw (X)27%
Sheffield Utd Win (2)26%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

71% +0.5 65%
38% +1.5 39%
17% +2.5 17%
13% +3.5 0%
4% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

29% -0.5 35%
62% -1.5 61%
83% -2.5 83%
87% -3.5 100%
96% -4.5 100%

Middlesbrough vs Sheffield Utd — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Middlesbrough — scored (home)1.42
Middlesbrough — conceded (home)0.75
Sheffield Utd — scored (away)1.22
Sheffield Utd — conceded (away)1.43
Model expected combined goals2.41

Both Teams To Score

Yes48%
No52%

Rate per Team

Middlesbrough — BTTS matches (home)46%
Sheffield Utd — BTTS matches (away)43%
Combined (simple average)44.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.596%
Under 5.54%
Over 6.594%
Under 6.56%
Over 7.592%
Under 7.58%
Over 8.577%
Under 8.523%
Over 9.573%
Under 9.527%
Over 10.566%
Under 10.534%
Expected total corners (blended average)11.80

Per-Team Corners own matches

Middlesbrough (home)

Corners for7.8
Corners against4.3

Sheffield Utd (away)

Corners for5.7
Corners against5.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Middlesbrough
9 9 12 16 4
Sheffield Utd
19 13 6 15 10

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.596%
Under 0.54%
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.566%
Under 2.534%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Middlesbrough (home)

For1.1

Sheffield Utd (away)

For2.0

Shots per Game

Middlesbrough — total shots (home)17.3
Sheffield Utd — total shots (away)11.4

Shots on Target

Middlesbrough — on target (home)5.2
Sheffield Utd — on target (away)3.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Middlesbrough

Inside the box10.41
Outside the box5.82

Sheffield Utd

Inside the box9.07
Outside the box4.33

Player Shots Middlesbrough

M. Whittaker
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target56%
+1.5 On Target21%
Leo Castledine
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target18%
T. Conway
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target17%
D. Strelec
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target49%
+1.5 On Target11%
H. Hackney
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target13%

Player Shots Sheffield Utd

P. Bamford
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target82%
+1.5 On Target25%
G. Hamer
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target49%
+1.5 On Target11%
C. O'Hare
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target7%
T. Cannon
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target6%
A. Brooks
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target8%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Middlesbrough xG (home)1.5
Sheffield Utd xG (away)1.57

Average Possession

59.43% Possession 52.33%

Team Comparison Middlesbrough vs Sheffield Utd

84.08% Pass accuracy 76.57%
516.84 Passes per match 415.35
-0.17 Goals prevented -0.12
9.33 Fouls committed 10.59
2.22 Goalkeeper saves 2.76
1.89 Offsides 2.04
15.45 Tackles per match 15.43

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Middlesbrough vs Sheffield Utd prediction analysis

Review Middlesbrough vs Sheffield Utd with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Championship.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Championship
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
Scroll to Top