Prediction Analysis: Middlesbrough vs Southampton
Middlesbrough vs Southampton prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Championship
2026-01-04
15:00
Middlesbrough
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
53%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Southampton
Away
Prediction Summary
1
44%
X
25%
2
31%
Over 2.5
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Middlesbrough (Home)
Goals scored / match1.42
Goals conceded / match0.75
Over 2.5 rate17%
BTTS rate46%
Southampton (Away)
Goals scored / match1.83
Goals conceded / match1.54
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate88%
Team Form last 5 matches
Middlesbrough
LLDDW
Southampton
WDWDD
Goals Comparison rate per team
71%
+0.5
92%
38%
+1.5
50%
17%
+2.5
21%
13%
+3.5
13%
4%
+4.5
8%
46%
BTTS
88%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 53%. Model confidence is Medium.
Middlesbrough averages 1.42 goals scored at home, while Southampton averages 1.83 goals scored away.
Model Strength
57%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
44%
Draw
25%
Away Win
31%
Over 2.5
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
Head-to-Head last 5
May 2026
Middlesbrough(A)
1 - 2
Southampton
Away
May 2026
Middlesbrough
0 - 0
Southampton
Draw
Jan 2026
Middlesbrough
4 - 0
Southampton
Home
Sep 2025
Middlesbrough(A)
1 - 1
Southampton
Draw
Mar 2024
Middlesbrough(A)
1 - 1
Southampton
Draw
In the last 5 meetings, Middlesbrough won 1, drew 3 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Middlesbrough — unbeaten run (home)3
Middlesbrough — scoring streak (home)0
Southampton — winless run (away)1
Southampton — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Middlesbrough Win (1)44%
Draw (X)25%
Southampton Win (2)31%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
71%
+0.5
92%
38%
+1.5
50%
17%
+2.5
21%
13%
+3.5
13%
4%
+4.5
8%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
29%
-0.5
8%
62%
-1.5
50%
83%
-2.5
79%
87%
-3.5
87%
96%
-4.5
92%
Middlesbrough vs Southampton — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Middlesbrough — scored (home)1.42
Middlesbrough — conceded (home)0.75
Southampton — scored (away)1.83
Southampton — conceded (away)1.54
Model expected combined goals2.82
Both Teams To Score
Yes57%
No43%
Rate per Team
Middlesbrough — BTTS matches (home)46%
Southampton — BTTS matches (away)88%
Combined (simple average)67%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.596%
Under 5.54%
Over 6.594%
Under 6.56%
Over 7.586%
Under 7.514%
Over 8.573%
Under 8.527%
Over 9.561%
Under 9.539%
Over 10.559%
Under 10.541%
Expected total corners (blended average)11.20
Per-Team Corners own matches
Middlesbrough (home)
Corners for7.8
Corners against4.3
Southampton (away)
Corners for5.0
Corners against5.3
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Middlesbrough
9
9
12
16
4
Southampton
10
14
15
12
16
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.596%
Under 0.54%
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.571%
Under 2.529%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.6
Yellow Cards per Team
Middlesbrough (home)
For1.1
Southampton (away)
For2.1
Shots per Game
Middlesbrough — total shots (home)17.3
Southampton — total shots (away)13.1
Shots on Target
Middlesbrough — on target (home)5.2
Southampton — on target (away)5.1
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Middlesbrough
Inside the box10.41
Outside the box5.82
Southampton
Inside the box9.77
Outside the box4.67
Player Shots Middlesbrough
M. Whittaker
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target56%
+1.5 On Target21%
Leo Castledine
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target18%
T. Conway
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target17%
D. Strelec
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target49%
+1.5 On Target11%
H. Hackney
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target13%
Player Shots Southampton
A. Armstrong
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target66%
+1.5 On Target48%
Léo Scienza
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target26%
C. Larin
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target17%
F. Azaz
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target49%
+1.5 On Target16%
R. Stewart
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target4%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Middlesbrough xG (home)1.5
Southampton xG (away)1.67
Average Possession
59.43%
Possession
56.31%
Team Comparison Middlesbrough vs Southampton
84.08%
Pass accuracy
83.17%
516.84
Passes per match
479.94
-0.17
Goals prevented
-0.06
9.33
Fouls committed
11.02
2.22
Goalkeeper saves
2.52
1.89
Offsides
1.87
15.45
Tackles per match
15
League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Middlesbrough vs Southampton prediction analysis
Review Middlesbrough vs Southampton with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Championship.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Championship
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights