Prediction Analysis: Millonarios vs Atletico Nacional
Millonarios vs Atletico Nacional prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Primera A
2025-06-06
01:15
Millonarios
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
35%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Atletico Nacional
Away
Prediction Summary
1
48%
X
29%
2
23%
Under 2.5
65%
BTTS No
60%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Millonarios (Home)
Goals scored / match1.35
Goals conceded / match0.78
Over 2.5 rate17%
BTTS rate39%
Atletico Nacional (Away)
Goals scored / match1.38
Goals conceded / match1.23
Over 2.5 rate15%
BTTS rate65%
Team Form last 5 matches
Millonarios
WDDWD
Atletico Nacional
LWLDD
Goals Comparison rate per team
70%
+0.5
73%
43%
+1.5
42%
17%
+2.5
15%
4%
+3.5
4%
0%
+4.5
4%
39%
BTTS
65%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 35%. Model confidence is Medium.
Millonarios averages 1.35 goals scored at home, while Atletico Nacional averages 1.38 goals scored away.
Model Strength
65%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
48%
Draw
29%
Away Win
23%
Over 2.5
35%
BTTS Yes
40%
Head-to-Head last 4
Sep 2025
Millonarios(A)
0 - 2
Atletico Nacional
Away
Jun 2025
Millonarios(A)
1 - 0
Atletico Nacional
Home
Jun 2025
Millonarios
0 - 0
Atletico Nacional
Draw
Apr 2025
Millonarios
0 - 0
Atletico Nacional
Draw
In the last 4 meetings, Millonarios won 1, drew 2 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Millonarios — unbeaten run (home)7
Millonarios — scoring streak (home)0
Atletico Nacional — winless run (away)4
Atletico Nacional — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Millonarios Win (1)48%
Draw (X)29%
Atletico Nacional Win (2)23%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
70%
+0.5
73%
43%
+1.5
42%
17%
+2.5
15%
4%
+3.5
4%
0%
+4.5
4%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
30%
-0.5
27%
57%
-1.5
58%
83%
-2.5
85%
96%
-3.5
96%
100%
-4.5
96%
Millonarios vs Atletico Nacional — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Millonarios — scored (home)1.35
Millonarios — conceded (home)0.78
Atletico Nacional — scored (away)1.38
Atletico Nacional — conceded (away)1.23
Model expected combined goals2.1
Both Teams To Score
Yes40%
No60%
Rate per Team
Millonarios — BTTS matches (home)39%
Atletico Nacional — BTTS matches (away)65%
Combined (simple average)52%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.596%
Under 4.54%
Over 5.592%
Under 5.58%
Over 6.576%
Under 6.524%
Over 7.567%
Under 7.533%
Over 8.554%
Under 8.546%
Over 9.537%
Under 9.563%
Over 10.533%
Under 10.567%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.10
Per-Team Corners own matches
Millonarios (home)
Corners for5.5
Corners against3.4
Atletico Nacional (away)
Corners for5.3
Corners against4.0
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Millonarios
10
6
14
6
2
Atletico Nacional
12
8
9
3
9
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.596%
Under 1.54%
Over 2.592%
Under 2.58%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)6.1
Yellow Cards per Team
Millonarios (home)
For2.8
Atletico Nacional (away)
For2.8
Shots per Game
Millonarios — total shots (home)16.5
Atletico Nacional — total shots (away)13.8
Shots on Target
Millonarios — on target (home)4.7
Atletico Nacional — on target (away)4.5
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Millonarios
Inside the box7.33
Outside the box6.74
Atletico Nacional
Inside the box8.73
Outside the box7.02
Player Shots Millonarios
Beckham Castro
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target21%
J. Cabezas
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target31%
D. Ruiz
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target19%
R. Falcao
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target17%
L. Castro
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target26%
Player Shots Atletico Nacional
A. Morelos
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target68%
+1.5 On Target27%
K. Viveros
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target10%
E. Cardona
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target51%
+1.5 On Target15%
J. Rengifo
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target15%
A. Sarmiento
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target13%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Millonarios xG (home)1.14
Atletico Nacional xG (away)1.17
Average Possession
51.83%
Possession
56.51%
Team Comparison Millonarios vs Atletico Nacional
80.8%
Pass accuracy
83.69%
372.59
Passes per match
411.63
0
Goals prevented
0
11.65
Fouls committed
11.51
2.78
Goalkeeper saves
2.59
1.8
Offsides
1.7
13.87
Tackles per match
10.58
League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Millonarios vs Atletico Nacional prediction analysis
Review Millonarios vs Atletico Nacional with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights