Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Millonarios vs Santa Fe

Millonarios vs Santa Fe prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primera A 2025-03-27 01:30
Millonarios
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
39%
Confidence
Medium
Score
0-1
Santa Fe
Away

Prediction Summary

1
30%
X
28%
2
42%
Under 2.5
61%
BTTS No
55%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Millonarios (Home)

Goals scored / match1.35
Goals conceded / match0.78
Over 2.5 rate17%
BTTS rate39%

Santa Fe (Away)

Goals scored / match1.22
Goals conceded / match1.11
Over 2.5 rate4%
BTTS rate52%

Team Form last 5 matches

Millonarios
WDDWD
Santa Fe
DWLLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

70% +0.5 70%
43% +1.5 33%
17% +2.5 4%
4% +3.5 4%
0% +4.5 4%
39% BTTS 52%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 39%. Model confidence is Medium.

Millonarios averages 1.35 goals scored at home, while Santa Fe averages 1.22 goals scored away.

Model Strength
61%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
30%
Draw
28%
Away Win
42%
Over 2.5
39%
BTTS Yes
45%

Head-to-Head last 5

Oct 2025 Millonarios(A) 1 - 0 Santa Fe Home
Sep 2025 Millonarios 0 - 0 Santa Fe Draw
Jun 2025 Millonarios 1 - 2 Santa Fe Away
Jun 2025 Millonarios(A) 1 - 0 Santa Fe Home
Mar 2025 Millonarios 2 - 0 Santa Fe Home

In the last 5 meetings, Millonarios won 3, drew 1 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Millonarios — unbeaten run (home)7
Millonarios — scoring streak (home)0
Santa Fe — winless run (away)0
Santa Fe — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Millonarios Win (1)30%
Draw (X)28%
Santa Fe Win (2)42%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

70% +0.5 70%
43% +1.5 33%
17% +2.5 4%
4% +3.5 4%
0% +4.5 4%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

30% -0.5 30%
57% -1.5 67%
83% -2.5 96%
96% -3.5 96%
100% -4.5 96%

Millonarios vs Santa Fe — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Millonarios — scored (home)1.35
Millonarios — conceded (home)0.78
Santa Fe — scored (away)1.22
Santa Fe — conceded (away)1.11
Model expected combined goals2.25

Both Teams To Score

Yes45%
No55%

Rate per Team

Millonarios — BTTS matches (home)39%
Santa Fe — BTTS matches (away)52%
Combined (simple average)45.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.596%
Under 4.54%
Over 5.588%
Under 5.512%
Over 6.578%
Under 6.522%
Over 7.568%
Under 7.532%
Over 8.550%
Under 8.550%
Over 9.544%
Under 9.556%
Over 10.534%
Under 10.566%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Millonarios (home)

Corners for5.5
Corners against3.4

Santa Fe (away)

Corners for4.1
Corners against5.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Millonarios
10 6 14 6 2
Santa Fe
6 8 8 12 7

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.598%
Under 1.52%
Over 2.592%
Under 2.58%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)6.1

Yellow Cards per Team

Millonarios (home)

For2.8

Santa Fe (away)

For3.4

Shots per Game

Millonarios — total shots (home)16.5
Santa Fe — total shots (away)10.2

Shots on Target

Millonarios — on target (home)4.7
Santa Fe — on target (away)3.3

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Millonarios

Inside the box7.33
Outside the box6.74

Santa Fe

Inside the box7.04
Outside the box5.44

Player Shots Millonarios

Beckham Castro
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target21%
J. Cabezas
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target31%
D. Ruiz
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target19%
R. Falcao
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target17%
L. Castro
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target26%

Player Shots Santa Fe

H. Rodallega
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target81%
+1.5 On Target37%
H. Mosquera
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target51%
+1.5 On Target22%
A. Zapata
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target11%
Y. Perlaza
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target9%
O. Fernández
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target5%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Millonarios xG (home)1.14
Santa Fe xG (away)1.08

Average Possession

51.83% Possession 48.19%

Team Comparison Millonarios vs Santa Fe

80.8% Pass accuracy 77.09%
372.59 Passes per match 334.04
0 Goals prevented 0
11.65 Fouls committed 11.52
2.78 Goalkeeper saves 3.46
1.8 Offsides 1.38
13.87 Tackles per match 10.54

League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Millonarios vs Santa Fe prediction analysis

Review Millonarios vs Santa Fe with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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