Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Millwall vs Bristol City

Millwall vs Bristol City prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Championship 2025-12-29 19:45
Millwall
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
42%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Bristol City
Away

Prediction Summary

1
32%
X
28%
2
40%
Under 2.5
58%
BTTS No
52%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Millwall (Home)

Goals scored / match1.38
Goals conceded / match1.13
Over 2.5 rate17%
BTTS rate38%

Bristol City (Away)

Goals scored / match1.13
Goals conceded / match1.22
Over 2.5 rate13%
BTTS rate52%

Team Form last 5 matches

Millwall
LDWDW
Bristol City
WLDLD

Goals Comparison rate per team

79% +0.5 65%
38% +1.5 30%
17% +2.5 13%
4% +3.5 4%
0% +4.5 0%
38% BTTS 52%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 42%. Model confidence is Medium.

Millwall averages 1.38 goals scored at home, while Bristol City averages 1.13 goals scored away.

Model Strength
58%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
32%
Draw
28%
Away Win
40%
Over 2.5
42%
BTTS Yes
48%

Head-to-Head last 5

Dec 2025 Millwall 2 - 1 Bristol City Home
Dec 2025 Millwall(A) 1 - 0 Bristol City Home
Mar 2025 Millwall 0 - 2 Bristol City Away
Aug 2024 Millwall(A) 3 - 4 Bristol City Away
Jan 2024 Millwall(A) 1 - 0 Bristol City Home

In the last 5 meetings, Millwall won 3, drew 0 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Millwall — unbeaten run (home)0
Millwall — scoring streak (home)0
Bristol City — winless run (away)3
Bristol City — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Millwall Win (1)32%
Draw (X)28%
Bristol City Win (2)40%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

79% +0.5 65%
38% +1.5 30%
17% +2.5 13%
4% +3.5 4%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

21% -0.5 35%
62% -1.5 70%
83% -2.5 87%
96% -3.5 96%
100% -4.5 100%

Millwall vs Bristol City — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Millwall — scored (home)1.38
Millwall — conceded (home)1.13
Bristol City — scored (away)1.13
Bristol City — conceded (away)1.22
Model expected combined goals2.35

Both Teams To Score

Yes48%
No52%

Rate per Team

Millwall — BTTS matches (home)38%
Bristol City — BTTS matches (away)52%
Combined (simple average)45%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.596%
Under 5.54%
Over 6.585%
Under 6.515%
Over 7.581%
Under 7.519%
Over 8.575%
Under 8.525%
Over 9.560%
Under 9.540%
Over 10.547%
Under 10.553%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

Millwall (home)

Corners for6.2
Corners against5.0

Bristol City (away)

Corners for5.0
Corners against5.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Millwall
12 14 15 5 14
Bristol City
9 12 10 11 17

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.583%
Under 2.517%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.7

Yellow Cards per Team

Millwall (home)

For1.3

Bristol City (away)

For2.0

Shots per Game

Millwall — total shots (home)13.5
Bristol City — total shots (away)11.6

Shots on Target

Millwall — on target (home)4.6
Bristol City — on target (away)4.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Millwall

Inside the box8.81
Outside the box4.13

Bristol City

Inside the box7.39
Outside the box4.78

Player Shots Millwall

O. Azeez
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target22%
M. Ivanović
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target15%
J. Coburn
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target18%
T. Ballo
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target6%
A. Emakhu
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target4%

Player Shots Bristol City

A. Mehmeti
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target32%
S. Twine
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target18%
E. Riis
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target14%
S. Bell
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target8%
T. Horvat
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target7%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Millwall xG (home)1.36
Bristol City xG (away)1.21

Average Possession

47.63% Possession 49.28%

Team Comparison Millwall vs Bristol City

70.42% Pass accuracy 77.85%
348.19 Passes per match 424.78
0.08 Goals prevented -0.04
12.52 Fouls committed 9.54
2.73 Goalkeeper saves 3.23
2.22 Offsides 2.02
15.75 Tackles per match 14.8

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Millwall vs Bristol City prediction analysis

Review Millwall vs Bristol City with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Championship.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Championship
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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